Winning their last three games by a combined 63 points, the Golden State Warriors return home to Oracle Arena to host a pesky Miami Heat squad. The Heat are coming off a tough loss in Sacramento but have been one of the best spread-bets on the road this season at 16-10 ATS in 26 games. They’ll face a stiff test against the undisputed best team in the NBA and opened as 14.5-point underdogs with a total of 221.5.
- The Warriors are 13-0 and 8-5 ATS in 13 home games as a double-digit favorite.
- The Heat are holding teams to an average of 104 points over their last 10 games (ranked 4th).
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the Heat’s last nine games (Average combined score: 204).
Spread-Bettors May Be Cautious Before Backing Warriors
Although no one will dispute that the Warriors should be heavy favorites in almost every home game they play, oddsmakers have put bettors in a tough spot based on the lines they offer. Golden State is regularly a double-digit fave at home and while they’ve done well in that spot (8-5 ATS in 13 games), the Dubs’ overall spread record at home isn’t great. The Warriors are 11-15-1 ATS in 27 home games and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 at Oracle Arena. They’re also 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup and 1-4-1 in the last six games when played in Oakland.
I feel like if you’re reading this preview, then you already know how good the Warriors are. They lead the league in scoring at 119.1 points per game, they shoot 38 percent on 33.2 three-point attempts and have a starting lineup of all-stars. That’s why betting against them is so risky because you put your money down on a decent underdog like the Heat and then Klay Thompson or Stephen Curry go off for 40 points and your wager is all but gone.
I’m likely not going to back Golden State on the spread mainly because I think it’s too many points but any bettor that decides to take the Warriors tonight knows they only need a two or three minute stretch of the game for the Dubs to rain threes and take a huge lead.
Can The Heat’s Defense Stop Golden State?
Short answer: No team can truly stop Golden State. Long answer: The Heat could certainly give the Warriors problems on the perimeter as they have length and athleticism throughout the lineup that can at least challenge the likes of Klay and Steph at the three-point line.
Over the last 10 games, the Heat rank fourth in points allowed per game (104.3) and the Heat were 4-2 SU and ATS in the six road games of that period. Even in their most recent road loss to the Kings, the Heat controlled the pace and were up by double-digits in the fourth quarter before running out of gas and losing by six. However, the offense has not been pulling its weight as the Heat are only averaging 101.4 points per game in that same 10-game stretch.
Miami is also not used to being a double-digit underdog as its only been in that position once this season vs the Raptors at -15 and the Heat rewarded spread-bettors by only losing by 10 points. Do I want to use that lone trend to back the Heat tonight? Absolutely not but any bettor who takes the Heat in this one knows they have a great shot to cash this bet because 14 or more points is a lot for a margin of victory in the NBA.
Heat’s Defense and Pace Has Led To A Lot of UNDERs Lately
The total opened at 221.5 and while it can be very risky in taking an UNDER with Golden State involved, this may be the game where totals bettors can take advantage. The Heat play stellar defense but rank near the bottom in points per game which is why the UNDER has hit in seven of their last nine with an average combined score of 204. The UNDER has also hit in four of the last five games in this matchup.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I’ll likely get burned because of how explosive Golden State’s offense is but I can’t trust either team when it comes to the spread because of how large it is. I think the Warriors can still win this game by double-digits but that extra four to five points (depending on the sportsbook) scares me for both sides. Another factor is that the Heat have 13 losses this season by 10 or more points which means while their defense can be decent at times, there are games where they don't show up at all.
