Banged-Up Pacers Are Underdogs vs Lower-Seeded Heat

Indiana finished ahead of Miami in the standings, but it’s the Heat who opened as 5-point favorites for Game 1 of their first-round series. The teams split a pair of seeding-round meetings last week after Miami won both clashes before the restart. Indiana, however, has covered six of the last eight matchups.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The underdog and the UNDER have received strong support since the opener, moving the line down to Miami -4 and the total to 216 as of Monday night. Indiana has been a moneymaker recently when catching points, going 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 as a dog.

Indiana News & Notes

Playing short-handed is nothing new to the Pacers, who were without Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo for extended stretches this season.

But with leading scorer T.J. Warren hobbled by plantar fasciitis — the same affliction that caused all-star center Domantas Sabonis to leave the bubble for treatment last month — and Oladipo shooting just 40 percent from the field during seeding games, Indiana’s bench will likely have to come up big in order for the Pacers to compete in this series.

Miami’s depth on the wing could give the Heat a significant advantage when the starters take a rest, something that you might want to try to exploit via live betting.

Warren averaged 31 points per game in the seeding round to earn All-Bubble first-team honors, but he has struggled badly in three matchups with the Heat this season. Miami limited the guard to 11-for-31 shooting and 10.3 points per contest, including a 5-of-14, 14-point effort in the teams’ first meeting after the restart.

Miami News & Notes

Give Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra extra time to prepare and he’ll find a way to have his team at its best. The Heat are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games when playing with at least three days’ rest, and much of that recent success has come because of their offense. Miami has scored 124 or more points in three of its six games this year when it had at least three days’ rest, going 5-1 to the OVER.

Spoelstra has also done some tinkering over the last few days, reportedly moving rookie guard Kendrick Nunn to the bench in favor of veteran Goran Dragic. Nunn started all of his 67 games this year while Dragic has been on the court for the Sportsbook tip just three times in 59 appearances. Dragic has averaged 18.6 points and 4.6 assists per 36 minutes in 12 career postseason games.

Derrick Jones Jr. may not be available for the Heat, however, after the backup small forward sprained his neck in Miami’s final seeding-round game on Friday. Jones lit up the Pacers for 18 points on 9-of-11 shooting before suffering the injury in the fourth quarter.

Betting Pick: UNDER 216

These teams have been heated rivals all year with Warren and Butler famously exchanging a war of words following their second meeting. I’m expecting a hard-fought, low-scoring battle in this one.