Heat Hope To Solve Bucks Again In Series Opener

Miami has given Milwaukee all it could handle this year, winning the first two meetings of the season and nearly beating the Bucks again in the bubble earlier this month. The Heat are just 6-point underdogs when the teams open their second-round series Monday.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

When the Bucks are laying a short number, it has usually spelled trouble for their backers. Milwaukee is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite of 6 points or less. Bettors had already bet the Bucks down to 5.5 points as of Sunday night.

The Heat were 9.5-point underdogs when the teams squared off in the seeding round, but Miami sat Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic in that contest.

Miami News & Notes

The Heat have the potential to look rusty early in their first game action since finishing off a first-round sweep of the Pacers last Monday. However, Miami’s been a covering machine for years when head coach Erik Spoelstra has had extra time to prepare, going 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games with at least three days of rest. The extended time off has also bought time for Jimmy Butler (shoulder) and Jae Crowder (ankle) to heal, as both are listed as probable for Game 1.

Miami was the only team in the Eastern Conference to post a winning record against Milwaukee this year, and the three-point shot is a big reason why. The Heat, one of the league’s most efficient teams from behind the arc this season, knocked down 43.3 percent of their threes this year against Milwaukee, which allowed the most triples in the NBA.

Miami also has a big body that can guard Giannis Antetokounmpo in the six-foot-nine, 255-pound Bam Adebayo, who limited The Greek Freak to 42.9 percent from the field on the 52 possessions he guarded him this season.

Milwaukee News & Notes

After spearheading last week’s protest of social injustice, George Hill and the Bucks have acknowledged to reporters that they haven’t been completely focused on basketball. But that hasn’t prevented Milwaukee from being one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA playoffs so far. Following a stunning 122-110 loss in the opener, the Bucks steamrolled the Magic by 14-plus points in each of the next four games, covering the spread in each of them.

Milwaukee has also shown an ability to find another gear defensively when tested, including in Saturday’s series-clinching win over Orlando. After seeing a 21-point lead shrink to three with 7:37 left in regulation, the Bucks allowed just 11 points the rest of the way en route to a comfortable 118-104 victory. Milwaukee has also relied on that defense against quality foes, going UNDER in 10 of its last 12 games against teams with records of .600 or better.

One potential concern for the Bucks on Monday is the status of Eric Bledsoe. The guard, who missed much of the seeding round after recovering from COVID-19, strained his right hamstring Saturday and was considered questionable for Game 1 as of Sunday night.

Betting Pick: UNDER 223

Taking the points with Miami is extremely tempting, but I’m a bit nervous about backing a team that hasn’t played in a week — especially one that has relied on perimeter shooting to beat the Bucks. If you throw out the seeding-round matchup when Miami rested a few key players, six of the last seven meetings between these squads have gone UNDER.