Bucks Look to Avoid Going Down 2-0 Against Underdog Heat

The Heat have been Milwaukee’s nemesis this season, a trend that continued Monday as Miami posted an 11-point win in Game 1. Jimmy Butler and the Heat have now won three of four contests with the Bucks this year, and Miami is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

After favoring the Bucks by 6 points in Game 1, oddsmakers opened Milwaukee 2 points shorter in this one before early money moved the Bucks to -5. Milwaukee continues to struggle as a favorite in this price range, going 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as chalk of 6 points or less.

Miami News & Notes

The Heat remain perfect in the playoffs following their Game 1 victory, and they’ve done it in convincing fashion. All five of Miami’s postseason wins have come by nine points or more, and three of them — including the 115-104 triumph Monday — were by 11-plus.

They’ve also looked really good against the Bucks this season, winning three of four meetings, with the lone loss coming in the seeding round when they sat Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic.

On Monday, Butler looked fully recovered from the sore shoulder that hampered him at the end of Miami’s first-round series against Indiana, shooting 13 of 20 from the field en route to a 40-point outing. Dragic added 27 points on just 15 field-goal attempts.

Miami’s strong effort in Game 1 interrupted a recent trend that has seen the Heat struggle in the underdog role. Going into Monday, Miami had covered just two of its previous 11 games when catching points. The Heat have another trend to overcome in Game 2: their tendency to let down after a comfortable victory. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win by 10 points or more.

Milwaukee News & Notes

For one game at least, the Bucks resolved their recent first-quarter struggles. Milwaukee, which has gone a dismal 3-8-2 ATS in Sportsbook frames in the bubble, came out flying Monday with 40 points in the first 12 minutes — its best first-quarter production since the season resumed in late July.

Unfortunately for the Bucks, there seemed to be a lid on the basket the rest of the way. Milwaukee averaged just 22 points in the remaining three quarters as the Heat’s interior size bottled up Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Greek Freak’s 18 points were the fewest he’s scored in any bubble contest in which he played more than 16 minutes. Antetokounmpo attempted only 10 field goals and was an ugly 4-for-12 from the free-throw line.

Without point guard Eric Bledsoe (strained hamstring), the Bucks also gave the ball away 19 times as Miami outscored Milwaukee 28-10 off turnovers. As of Tuesday night, Bledsoe was listed as questionable for Game 2.

Betting Pick: Heat +5

Miami’s size and three-point shooting make the Heat a tough matchup for the Bucks, evident by their 3-1 SU record against Milwaukee this season. The Heat weathered an early storm to grind out the victory in Game 1, and I won’t be surprised to see a similar storyline play out Wednesday.