The Sacramento Kings have decided to make a move for a playoff spot after some acquisitions at the trade deadline and their first challenge with their remade roster is the visiting Miami Heat. The Kings are coming off a tough 26-point home loss vs the Rockets and now face a Heat squad that has won four of its last five away games and is one of eight NBA teams to have a winning record on the road.
The Kings opened as 2.5-point favorites (since moved to -3) with a total of 218.5.
- The Kings are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
- The Heat are holding teams to 105.3 points per game over their last 10 outings.
- The UNDER has hit in 12 of the Kings’ last 15 games.
The Kings Are Going for It and I Love it!
Twelve seasons. That’s how long it’s been since the Kings made the postseason and they’ve finished no higher than 10th in the West in that span so needless to say, the franchise and fans are thirsty for a playoff spot. Sacramento acquired Harrison Barnes and Alec Burks at the trade deadline and while it’s unknown as of this writing if they’ll suit up tonight, what’s clear is that the Kings didn’t give up any key rotation players (Iman Shumpert and Justin Jackson) to get them, which means handicapping their chances to win tonight is just like any other game.
That’s why I’m high on the Kings’ chances to win and cover the spread tonight. They’re 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home including some impressive outright wins over the likes of the Sixers, Spurs and Blazers. In that span, Sacramento shot an average of 49.7 percent from the field while having a +7.3 point differential.
Although the rosters of these two teams have changed over the years, it’s also worth noting that the Kings have won the last three games in this matchup and covered the spread in five of the last seven. I also expect those trends to continue because Sacramento is one of the few NBA teams that has plenty of size down low to combat the likes of center Hassan Whiteside and Kelly Olynyk.
Heat’s Defense Can Keep Them In Any Game
The Miami Heat usually don’t get considered among the Eastern Conference powerhouses and while they might not win a title any time soon, they are pests when betting against them in road games. The Heat are 14-11 SU and 16-9 ATS in 25 away games this season and have won four of their last five away from South Beach.
It begs the question, how are they pulling this off? Well, the answer is simple and it’s their defense. When playing in away games, the Heat are ranked in the top five in all of the key defensive categories like opponent field-goal percentage and opponent points in the paint and have the best scoring defense by limiting teams to an average of 105.4 points per game.
But (there’s always a but) if an opposing offense overcomes Miami’s game plan, that puts the Heat in a lot of trouble because their offense is nowhere near the top 10. The Heat rank 23rd in points scored per road game and over their last 10 games overall, they’ve only averaged 101.1 points and went 3-7 SU.
UNDER Bettors Have Their Eyes on the Kings
The total opened at 218.5 and totals bettors have been riding the Kings to some profit for a nice stretch recently. The UNDER has hit in 12 of the Kings’ last 15 games with an average combined score of 217.1 and while that’s a razor-thin margin, if the Heat play defense the way their numbers suggest, the UNDER should come through. The UNDER has also hit in six of the Heat’s last eight contests.
My Pick Is…
To take the Kings to win and cover the spread. I’m skeptical that the Heat will be able to score enough points to overcome the Kings and their raucous crowd. That being said, if you’re on the Heat, take the UNDER too because if they win, it will be because Miami limited the Kings’ shot attempts and kept them under 110 points.
