At 24-12 against the spread and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at AT&T Center, the Spurs are the best home bet in the Association. Pop’s team welcomes the league’s best road bet, the Miami Heat, to south Texas tonight as a 6.5-point home favorite. The total opened at 209 points but has been bet up to 210.5.
Standout Stats
- Miami has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 road games, including five in a row. Of the five latest ATS wins, four were as an underdog of 6 points or less and three were also straight-up wins. The Heat are 10-3 ATS as a visitor in the Western Conference this season.
- San Antonio has won 11 of the last 12 games in this matchup, however, Miami won the first meeting this season 95-88 in South Beach on November 7. The Heat were a 1.5-point favorite in that game. In the last dozen head-to-heads, the Spurs went 10-2 ATS.
- After a woeful Rodeo road trip, the Spurs have won nine games in a row and covered the spread in eight of them. This run includes straight-up wins vs Golden State, Portland, Milwaukee, Denver, Oklahoma City and Detroit.
- Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are shooting 48.2 percent from the floor, just one-tenth of a percentage point behind Toronto for tops in the NBA during that stretch. During this time, the Spurs are fifth in the league with a +6.9 point differential.
- Miami has held opponents to a league-low 36.8 points in the paint during its last 10 games. During the same span, San Antonio has scored a league-low 40.2 points in the paint per game. We can expect plenty of outside shooting from the No. 1 outside shooting team in the NBA, the Spurs.
- The Heat have the league’s No. 20 three-point shooting defense, with opponents shooting 35.9 percent on the season. San Antonio averages 39.8 percent three-point shooting, a number that is actually a little lower (38.3 percent) during the Spurs’ nine-game win streak.
- This is the third game in four days for the Heat. The last time they were in this spot on the road was February 13 in Denver, a game the Nuggets won 103-87. Before that, it was a 107-99 loss in Boston and before that, a 108-105 loss to the Lakers in LA. The Boston and LA losses were spread wins.
My Best Bet for Heat vs Spurs
Heat UNDER 102.5 Points
Miami plays with the second-slowest pace of play in the league at 96.8 possessions over its last 10 games. During the same stretch, San Antonio is No. 23 in the Association with 98.6 possessions.
In games vs teams with a similar pace to the Spurs, Miami scored 87 points vs Denver, 91 and 93 points vs Charlotte, 96 points vs Detroit and 101 points vs Dallas.
San Antonio has won 11 of the last 12 games in this matchup, however, Miami won the first meeting this season. Miami has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 road games.away Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are shooting 48.2 percent from the floor (2nd in the NBA).home
