After being stunned on their home floor and looking lost trying to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Boston Celtics will try to even up their second-round series in Game 4 tonight. The Celtics could not contain the Greek Freak, who put up 32 points in Game 3 and helped the Bucks outscore Boston 52-24 in the paint. Game 3 saw a lot of points and the OVER has now hit in eight of the last nine games in this matchup when played at TD Garden.
The Celtics opened as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 221.
STANDOUT STATS
- Game 3 saw the Bucks destroy the Celtics in the paint. The Bucks outscored the Celtics 52-24 down low and it was the first game of the series where Milwaukee took control of that phase of the game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a beast in Game 3 and finished 8 for 13 from the field (32 points) with 13 rebounds and eight assists.
- Kyrie Irving may have scored 29 points in Game 3 but he had to take a ton of shots to get there. The all-star guard has shot 12 for 40 from the field over the last two games, which is a far cry from his Game 1 performance when he shot 12 for 21 and scored 26 points.
- The Celtics’ three-point shooting has been a standout phase of their offense in the postseason. Although they rank third-last in three-point attempts amongst active playoff teams, they lead the NBA playoffs in three-point percentage (39.6) and shot 40.1 percent in Game 3 vs the Bucks on 40 attempts.
- The benches were the difference in Game 3 as the Bucks got huge contributions from George Hill and Pat Connaughton (35 points and 11 rebounds) and Hill outscored the Celtics’ starters on his own. The Celtics got 100 points from their starters and only 16 points from their bench players.
- The Bucks’ free throw shooting hasn’t burned them yet but it’s troubling when you see they rank last amongst all playoff teams in shooting percentage from the charity stripe. Milwaukee is hitting 73.4 percent of its shots and the Bucks are lucky it didn’t come back to bite them in Game 4 as they missed 12 free throws in a seven-point win.
- A lot of OVER trends coming into this matchup as the OVER has hit in five of the Bucks’ last six games and in their last six outings on the road (avg. combined score: 238.7). When these teams meet at TD Garden, the OVER tends to follow as it’s also hit in eight of their last nine games in Bean Town (avg. combined score: 220.1).
My Best Bet for Bucks vs Celtics
OVER 221
I heavily considered taking the Bucks moneyline in this spot but I think the OVER is the safer play because of how good Milwaukee’s scoring has been. In the Bucks’ last 15 games, they have scored 115 points or more in 13 of those games are averaging 119.6 points per game in that stretch. They’ve dropped 123 points in their last two games vs a strong Celtics defense and I expect another high-scoring game in Bean Town.
