Bucks Visit Boston Seeking Third Straight Win

After slow starts to the season, Milwaukee (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Boston (5-6, 6-5) are both playing better basketball going into Friday’s clash at TD Garden. The Celtics have covered eight of their last 11 home games against the Bucks, who have gone UNDER the total in eight of their last nine.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Sportsbook point spread of Milwaukee -2 is the fewest points the Bucks have been favored by in the last seven meetings, although it had moved to -2.5 by the time of writing. The UNDER was what caught early bettors’ interest the most, however, driving the total down to as low as 213.

Milwaukee News & Notes

Even though they’re not yet back to full strength, the Bucks are starting to look a bit more like last year’s champs. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back victories in Philadelphia and New York by a combined margin of 21 points, righting the ship from an ugly 1-5 SU and ATS stretch in its previous six games.

Milwaukee remains without Khris Middleton (health and safety protocols) and Brook Lopez (back), neither of whom seem likely to return to action on Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo overcame a minor ankle injury to record 15 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists against the Knicks, but it was Pat Connaughton who was Milwaukee’s offensive catalyst, drilling a career-high seven threes and leading all scorers with 23 points.

The Bucks have been leaning on their defense with several regulars out of action at the start of the year, holding six of their last seven opponents under 110 points. Milwaukee has gone UNDER the total in eight of its last nine games.

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Boston News & Notes

The Celtics are also playing better after a slow start, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a three-game losing streak. On Wednesday, Boston avenged a 32-point loss to Toronto in its home opener with a 104-88 rout of the Raptors, the third time in four games that Boston has held an opponent under 90 points.

Star wing Jaylen Brown has missed Boston’s last two games with a Grade 1 hamstring strain, and he’s officially been ruled out once again against Milwaukee. In his absence, the Celtics are getting scoring from throughout the lineup, with six different players cracking double figures against Toronto.

Although the win over the Raptors was just Boston’s second point spread cover in its last 10 home games, the Celtics have long been dangerous at TD Garden when they’re an underdog. Over the past four years, Boston has covered 21 of its last 30 home games when catching points, winning 17 of those games straight up.

How Milwaukee Will Cover

Milwaukee has had issues guarding Boston in recent meetings, allowing 119 points or more in four of the last five. That shouldn’t be an issue this time, however, with the Bucks playing much better defensively and Brown out of action for the Celtics.

How Boston Will Cover

The Celtics have been one of the NBA’s best teams this season at defending the three, which could help them shut down a Milwaukee attack that drained 26 threes against the Knicks. Boston should also try to push the pace in the Bucks’ third road game in four days and fourth in six.

Computer Pick: Milwaukee -2

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