The Milwaukee Bucks will put their undefeated record on the line when they head to Beantown to face the Boston Celtics. The Bucks are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven games this season but have dropped five straight in Boston with four of those losses coming in last year’s playoffs. As for the Celtics, they’re riding a three-game win streak and are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three games at home this season.
The Celtics opened as 3-point favorites with the total at 215.
- The Bucks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Celtics.
- The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
- The UNDER has hit in 6 of the Celtics’ last 7 games at home.
New ‘City of Champions’ Has Not Been Kind to the Bucks
Although the Bucks are rolling to start the year, they know this will be the first true test to show if they can be a contender in the East. Milwaukee is dominating teams this season, winning by an average of 18 points per game with Giannis Antetokounmpo planting his flag firmly in the MVP conversation. The Greek Freak is averaging 25 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists this season, which are all career highs, so he will need to be his dominant self if his team plans to take down the C’s.
But this is pretty much the same roster (outside of Brook Lopez) that faced the Celtics in the Sportsbook round of the playoffs last April. The Bucks pushed that series to seven games but they dropped four games at TD Garden by an average of 10.4 points which cost them the series. The Bucks have now dropped five straight games in Beantown while also going 0-5 ATS.
However, the main difference between this year and last year is defense as head coach Mike Budenholzer has got this squad humming on that side of the ball by holding the opposition to 104.1 points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. I’m siding with the Bucks tonight as I think they have the firepower to overcome the Celtics and, until they lose, I can’t pick against them.
Spread Bettors Love When the Celtics Play at Home
Riding a three-game win streak, Boston may be figuring out the roster rotation to make sure its studs all get a chance to play. The Celtics took down the Thunder and the Pistons (twice) during that stretch and that has pushed their record to 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games against teams with winning records and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
The C’s defense is no joke as they’re only allowing 97.6 points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. But their offense hasn’t caught up yet as they’re the second-lowest scoring team in the league at 102.4. One game they dropped this season that was a huge red flag was at home against the Magic when they could only manage 90 points and allowed Orlando, which is ranked dead last in the NBA in points per game, to score 93. So, if Boston’s offense doesn’t get its poop in a group, it could get run over by the Bucks tonight.
Don’t Like the Spread? Take the UNDER
The total opened at 215 and totals bettors should take a hard look at the UNDER in this matchup. Both of these teams are rock-solid defensively and the UNDER has hit in six of the Celtics’ last seven games at home with an average combined score of 189.2 points per game. Considering the average combined score in this matchup over the last nine games is 205.4, the UNDER should be heavily considered.
My Pick Is…
To take the Bucks to cover the spread. Milwaukee has come out like gangbusters this season and it has the look of a top-three team in the Eastern Conference with the way Giannis has played. Until they lose, I’m not betting against them.
