The Denver Nuggets play the second of their four-game homestand by welcoming the Milwaukee Bucks to the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets have swept the last two season series with the Bucks and are 3-1 SU against Eastern Conference opponents this year. Both teams are coming off losses but Denver is the three-point favorites in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 222 points.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Milwaukee’s last six games.
- Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings between Denver and Milwaukee.
Denver looks to end first losing skid of the season
The Nuggets have hit a speed bump this week, having their five-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a narrow 89-87 defeat to the Grizzlies and followed that up with another close defeat on Friday 112-110 to the Nets for its first consecutive losses on the year. The loss to Brooklyn just two days ago was Denver’s first loss in front of its home fans, now holding a 6-1 SU record at the Pepsi Center. It has been relying on its stifling defense and slow pace of play to earn its victories this year.
The Nuggets are tied with the Pacers for allowing the second-fewest points per game this season at 102.1 and have the sixth-slowest pace of play. In addition to surrendering the second-fewest points per game in the league, they give up the third-fewest shots per game so teams have to shoot well if they want to get past Denver, luckily for Milwaukee, it shoots 47.7 percent from the floor. Expect a good battle between the two big men in Nikola Jokic (DEN) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL), as the Nuggets give up the second-fewest opponent defensive rebounds, while the Bucks grab the most defensive boards.
High-flying Bucks eye split on their road swing
Milwaukee is wrapping up its four-game Western Conference road swing tonight, going 1-2 through the first three games, with its only triumph coming against Golden State 134-111. Heading into this trip, the Bucks had an 8-1 record with their only loss coming at TD Garden, falling 117-113 to the Boston Celtics. The Bucks have a unique two-pronged attack, as they do a good job attacking the rim and hitting shots from beyond the perimeter. Milwaukee averages the most three-pointers per game at 15.1, while also averaging the third-most points in the paint per game at 55.7.
With all this offensive approach, it should come as no surprise that the Bucks are scoring the second-most points per game in the league at 121.7 just 0.2 ppg fewer than Golden State. Defensively, though, they just let their opponents shoot at will, surrendering the second-most shots per game and the most three-point attempts per game. This is a bit of a strategy to get their opponents into a run-and-gun style of play that they enjoy, holding the fifth-fastest pace of play. The one impressive thing offensively for the Bucks is that their shots are not rushed and they move the ball around really well, averaging the second-most assists per game at 27.3.
Should you be on the OVER tonight?
There are signs pointing to the OVER in tonight’s game and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 222 points. This is the third-lowest total the Bucks have had all year, with two of the previous three low totals going OVER. Meanwhile, Milwaukee and Denver have gone OVER in three of their last four meetings with an average combined score of 239. The Nuggets do have a good ability shooting the ball as they have scored 110 or more points in seven of their 12 games this year, while the Bucks have scored 110+ in 11 of their 12 contests, I think you should be on the OVER.
My take on the Bucks vs Nuggets
I like the OVER 222 points in this match. Denver’s defense definitely has to be respected, but Milwaukee has a great ability at bringing its opponents into a track race. In addition to the points above, the Bucks have gone OVER in nine of their 12 games this season, while the Nuggets have gone OVER in seven of their last eight games. Lastly, I think we are going to see a fun battle between Jokic and Antetokounmpo that could see them trading points in the paint all night.
