The Milwaukee Bucks and the Golden State Warriors are the only teams in the NBA averaging over 120 points per game and will meet in their first of two season meetings tonight at Oracle Arena. The Warriors opened as a 7.5-point favorite but the line has come down to 6 in early betting. As one would expect between the top two scoring teams, the total is quite high at 238.
- The Warriors are 9-0 SU in their last nine games at home (avg. winning margin: 16.78).
- The Bucks are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
- Golden State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 regular-season games when closing as a favorite of 1 to 7 points.
Warriors Not Covering in Close Games
I was quite interested to see that the Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular-season games as a favorite of 7 points or less. The Warriors are so accustomed to being huge favorites that this situation doesn’t arise all that often.
For example, tonight’s game will be just the third time this season that Steve Kerr’s team is less than a 7-point fave. On October 21, Golden State was a 4.5-point favorite in Denver and lost 100-98. Two days earlier, the Warriors were 2.5-point favorites in Utah and won 124-123.
The defending champs’ lowest spread at home so far this season was 9.0 vs New Orleans on Halloween. They won that game by 10.
Milwaukee Hasn’t Been Great on the Road
While the Bucks are off to a roaring start this season, they haven’t had an overly taxing schedule to this point and might be a little overvalued heading into this road game. Milwaukee started a three-game West Coast swing with a 15-point loss to Portland on Tuesday when it closed as a 2-point favorite.
The Bucks are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games overall and are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. While scoring an average of 120 points per game this season, that number drops to 113.5 points per game on the road where they are turning the ball over 15.8 times per game, which is 23rd in the NBA.
My Bet for This Game
Much like baseball to Sammy Sosa, the Warriors have been very, very good to me this season and I’ll be backing them as a home favorite tonight. The champs have won their last nine home games by an average of 16.78 points per game and based on the matchups outlined above, I think they take a double-digit win over the Bucks tonight.
