The second-highest scoring team in the NBA visits the sixth-highest scoring team tonight when the Milwaukee Bucks travel to Oregon to tangle with the Trail Blazers. The Bucks are one game behind the Toronto Raptors for first place in the East, while Portland is third overall in the West. Milwaukee is a 1.5-point favorite in this one with the total sitting at 229.
- Milwaukee is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Portland.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Trail Blazers’ last 10 games with a closing total of 228.0 or less.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Bucks’ last 12 games on the road (avg. combined score: 222.67).
Bucks vs Trail Blazers Game Center
Bucks Are Filling the Bucket
The Milwaukee Bucks are scoring in droves through their first nine games of the year. Wisconsin’s only NBA team is putting up 121.9 points per game this season – second only to the Golden State Warriors, who are just slightly ahead with 123.5 points per game. Milwaukee set a season high against Sacramento on Sunday, dropping 144 points.
Not to be outdone, the Trail Blazers are blazing their own offensive story so far this season, averaging 117.2 points. Damian Lillard is on a torrid pace with 28.1 points per game and he’s cracked the 40-point plateau twice in his first 10 games.
Not Just Offensive-Minded
Unlike high-scoring teams that also allow plenty of points, like New Orleans, Sacramento and the Lakers, Portland and Milwaukee are among the top defensive teams in the NBA. The Bucks and Blazers have the fifth- and sixth-best scoring defenses, respectively, while Milwaukee has the best plus/minus in the Association at +15.8.
Additionally, the Bucks have kept opponents to a field-goal percentage of 40.4, which is first in the league, and Portland is third in that stat at 42.6 percent.
Milwaukee leads the NBA with 54.4 rebounds per game while Portland is second at 51.9 boards per game.
My Pick for This Game
At first glance, you see two of the top scoring teams in the league and think “automatic OVER bet.” But not so fast. As good as these teams have been on offense, they’ve been even better defensively and under the boards.
To me, that screams that this will be a very closely contested game and maybe not as free-flowing as some of their games leading into this one. If you look at the history between these clubs, the UNDER has hit in six of their last eight meetings with an average combined score of 198.25.
Even though our stats show the OVER hitting in 10 of Milwaukee’s last 12 road games, the average combined score in those games is well below the expected closing total tonight.
I’m going to fade the public and bet UNDER 229 in this game tonight.
