The trade deadline has come and gone and while the Dallas Mavericks have a bright future, their present-day lineup could be in trouble when they host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Mavs have been one of the best home bets in the NBA this season at 18-7-1 ATS but no longer have the services of Harrison Barnes and Wes Matthews on the wing, which could severely hamper their scoring potential. The Bucks, on the other hand, will also be without all-star Khris Middleton but have the best road record in the East at 17-9 SU in 26 games.
The Bucks opened as large 8-point favorites with a total of 223.
- The Bucks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Four of the Mavericks’ top 6 scorers this season are no longer on the team.
- The UNDER has hit in the Mavericks’ last four games (avg. combined score: 196.2).
Bucks vs Mavericks Game Center
Bucks Killing Teams on the Road
At 17-9 SU in 26 games and winning their last five games (5-0 ATS) by an average of 15.4 points, the Bucks are blowing the doors off the opposition. Milwaukee’s scoring is on another level right now as the Bucks are second in the league in scoring, hitting 35.6 percent of their three-pointers on the second-most attempts, and own the best scoring differential in the NBA (+10.2).
The one drawback for the Bucks tonight is they will be without Khris Middleton, who is their second all-star and one of their best three-point shooters at 38.4 percent on six attempts per game. I’m willing to overlook his absence because in the two games Milwaukee played without him, the Bucks won each game by double digits.
I think if you’re a Bucks believer, you have to keep riding the hot hand. They still have one of the deepest rosters in the league and can insert guys like DJ Wilson and Tony Snell to fill up the scoresheet. The fact that Milwaukee is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight road games is just icing on the cake.
To Say Mavs are Short-handed Would be an Understatement
With what is now a completely different-looking Mavericks squad, Dallas will be hard pressed to win this game. Sixty percent of its starting lineup from the beginning of the season is no longer on the team and four of the Mavs’ top six scorers have packed their bags. Which begs the question, why are they only underdogs of 8 points?
Well, it’s because the Mavs were such a good home bet before the trades that we can’t dismiss them outright with Luka Doncic still on the team. The Mavs are 19-7 SU in 26 home games and this is the largest spread they’ve faced as a home dog this season. In fact, as a home dog, the Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in 10 games.
Now comes the disclaimer: that was with the lineup as presented at the beginning of the season. Since the trade that sent Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan to New York, the Mavs’ scoring has fallen off a cliff as they’ve failed to top 100 points in two of their last three games. For that reason along with how dominant the Bucks are, I can’t endorse a Mavs cover bet in this one.
UNDER ALERT
On to the good stuff because I think this game is going UNDER. The total opened at 223 and the UNDER has hit in the Mavs’ last four games with an average combined score of 196.2. The UNDER has also hit in 10 of the Bucks’ last 15 games and 12 of their last 17 on the road.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I don’t trust either team’s ability to cover that spread and I think this total comes down to whether the Mavericks can score over 110 points, which I don’t think they can. I expect the UNDER to come through and would also recommend taking the Bucks spread if you don’t do totals.
