In one of the more compelling games of the NBA’s regular season, the Houston Rockets look to stay hot when they host the Eastern Conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Rockets are starting to remind everyone that they had the best record in the league last season and have won 12 of their last 14 games while the Bucks may be the best team in the East and have won 10 of their last 12.
The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 226.
- The Rockets are 2-0 SU and ATS as home underdogs this season.
- The Bucks lead the NBA in points scored per game (117.6).
- The UNDER has hit in 6 of the Bucks’ last 7 games on the road.
Should the Rockets be Home Underdogs?
Based on their play over the last month, they should be the favorites over any team in the league when playing at home. The Rockets have been slicing through the competition since mid-December by winning 10 straight home games with an average win margin of 11.1 points per game.
Although Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are not expected to play, it hasn’t seemed to matter given how James Harden has been balling out. He has scored 35 points or more in 10 of the Rockets’ last 12 games and has single-handedly carried them back to respectability after a sluggish start. The supporting cast will likely need to step up to get over a team like the Bucks but Clint Capela and PJ Tucker have each scored 20 or more points in five of Houston’s last six games so if the Rockets get huge scoring from the frontcourt, they can’t be stopped.
Other than how Harden is scorching the earth with his scoring, one of the main reasons I like the Rockets tonight is how they’ve fared as an underdog lately. Houston has gone 2-0 SU and ATS in two games this season as a home underdog with outright wins over the Thunder and Celtics so I’m on them to get the win tonight.
Bucks’ Scoring Has been On Another Level
Leading the NBA in points per game and having the front-runner for MVP, Milwaukee is one of the few teams that will give me pause to bet against when it’s a road game. It’s easy to get caught up in the Giannis hype with his highlights and his ability to stuff the stat sheet but it’s the whole starting lineup that is giving the opposition fits. Each starter averages double figures in points per game with three players shooting over 37 percent from deep. The deep threat might be the Greek Freak’s only weakness as he is shooting a putrid 16 percent from three-point range but he leads the NBA in points in the paint so I’ll give him a pass.
The Bucks should be able to at least give the Rockets’ frontcourt trouble when going to the rim as Milwaukee leads the NBA in limiting points allowed in the paint, is ranked 10th in points allowed per game overall and is first in opponent field-goal percentage (43.2 percent).
That being said, I’m still not sold that the Bucks can win this game tonight because of how they fare as favorites on the road. Milwaukee is 4-7-1 ATS in 12 road games as chalk this season with only one of those wins coming against a team with a winning record. Factoring in that the Bucks have lost their last five games at the Toyota Center by an average margin of 8.6 points per game, I think I have to fade the deer in this one.
Bucks’ Road Games Leading to UNDERs
The total opened at 226 and while both of these teams have a potent offense, the trends are pointing to an UNDER. When the Bucks are involved, the UNDER tends to follow as it has hit in six of their last seven road games with an average combined score of 207.4 points per game. It’s also hit in 12 of their last 17 games overall with an average combined score of 216.4.
My Pick Is…
Well, if you made it this far, you probably can tell that I’m going with the Rockets. I just think they’re too hard to stop right now with how Harden is playing and with the edge of playing at home. The Bucks could be stifled if Giannis and company can’t overcome the Beard and his red-hot shooting.
