Sitting pretty with the best record in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks look to continue their reign of dominance when they travel to the Hickory State to face the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Bucks have won six straight on the road (6-0 ATS) and beat each team by double digits. The Pacers, on the other hand, are still adjusting to life without all-star Victor Oladipo but may have turned the corner as they’re riding their own six-game win streak coming into this divisional matchup.
The Bucks opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 218.5.
- The Pacers rank 25th in points scored per game since Victor Oladipo was lost for the season.
- The Bucks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the Pacers’ last 8 games.
No Oladipo Hasn’t Killed the Pacers’ Chances
Usually, when a team loses its best player, that’s a wrap for its postseason chances. Well, don’t tell that to the Pacers, who have reeled off six straight wins in the wake of Victor Oladipo’s injury after dropping the first four contests with him not in the lineup. Indy just signed Wesley Matthews to give them more depth on the wing and this will be his second game in Pacers colors after getting bought out by the Knicks.
Matthew’s ability to score could be crucial to the Pacers’ chances tonight because since Oladipo got hurt, the ball hasn’t been going into the basket with regularity. The Pacers rank 25th in points per game since Oladipo’s injury (10 games) but they seem to be still taking good shots because their field-goal and three-point percentages are both ranked in the top 10 in that same stretch.
The Pacers also have a history of owning this matchup as they’ve won five of the last six games vs the Bucks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and five of the last six games in this matchup overall. I think the Pacers can win this game outright but they’ll need to control the paint as that’s where the Bucks make a living this season. Indy ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint (43.6) while Milwaukee ranks third in points scored down low (54.5) so something will have to give.
Bucks Are One Of Few Teams That are Trustworthy On The Road
Sitting at 19-9 SU and 16-10-2 ATS in 28 road games, Milwaukee has become a darling in the betting community with its ability to win tough road games and to win them handily. The Bucks have won their last six away from the Cream City while covering the spread in each game with a winning margin of 14.3 points per game. To be fair, only one of those wins was against a team with a winning record (Toronto) but the Bucks don’t make the schedule and they were the favorites in five of them so I’d give them credit more than a slight. In the Bucks’ last 10 road games, they’ve gone an impressive 8-1-1 ATS.
I find it hard to fade the Bucks right now because of some of the impressive road wins they’ve gotten this season. Milwaukee has won in Boston, Toronto, Golden State and Houston this year and although it lost in Indiana by 17 points back in December, the Bucks have only progressed since that loss and the addition/debut of Nikola Mirotic could push them over the hump as the true No. 1 contender in the East. When you factor in that they have the best player in the matchup, who seemingly can’t be stopped in the open floor, and have the seventh-best scoring defense in road games, this one feels like an easy Bucks win.
UNDER Bettors Cashing in On Pacers Games
The total opened at 218.5 and when the Pacers take the floor, the UNDER has tended to follow lately. The UNDER has hit in seven of the Pacers’ last eight games with an average combined score of 204.2 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in 11 of their last 14 games overall. Both of these teams have top-10 defenses and the Pacers are having a difficult time scoring with Oladipo out, so taking the UNDER would be the smart play in this tilt.
My Pick Is…
To ride with the Bucks and take them to win and cover the spread. I know the Bucks’ history in this matchup is sour and has not been profitable but I feel like the eye test shows that Milwaukee is in a class of its own in the East right now. I would even endorse a Bucks’ cover bet if this got up to -5.
