After barely beating the Pelicans and struggling to get any consistency to make a playoff push, the Los Angeles Lakers host the league-best Milwaukee Bucks in Hollywood tonight. The Lakers have fared pretty well at Staples Center since LeBron’s return to the lineup by going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in three games but each win felt like they had to scrape and claw to even get the W. The Bucks, on the other hand, have not had that issue as they’ve gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
In what could only be described as a “trap bet,” the Bucks opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 236.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Bucks own the best road record in the NBA at 22-9 SU in 31 games. They’ve won nine of their last 10 on the road while covering the spread in eight of them with a +11.9 point differential.
- Since LeBron returned from injury vs the Clippers on January 31, the Lakers are ranked 29th in the NBA in points allowed (122.2), 26th in opponent field-goal percentage and 28th in point differential (-8.6).
- The Bucks are the second-highest scoring team in the league this season (117.4 ppg) and over their last 10 games have averaged 118.1.
- The Lakers are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in two home games since LeBron returned to the lineup and won each game by five points.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bucks’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 223.86).
My Best Bet for Bucks vs Lakers
Bucks -4.5
Although it does feel fishy for the team with the best record to only be favored by two baskets, that doesn’t mean it’s a trap. It’s oddsmakers making sure they can get bets on both sides. Sportsbooks must anticipate Giannis Antetokounmpo to be limited again with a knee injury after he only played 24 minutes in an OT win vs Sacramento. Monitor his status but I’m willing to roll the dice and overlook that because as we get closer to tipoff, the line will probably be -6 or -6.5 once the sharp money comes in.
The Lakers are painful to watch lately with the pressure of making a playoff push and the lack of urgency on the defensive end that has led to many highlights of LeBron glaring at his teammates and loafing through half the game. I have been burned before by betting against LeBron but there are too many stats and trends that are overwhelmingly in favor of the Bucks so I’m taking the layup and banking on the better team to come out on top.
