The Heat are one of just three teams to beat Milwaukee this year on its home court, dealing the Bucks an overtime defeat in October. Milwaukee looks to avenge that loss Monday when it visits Miami, where the Heat are 25-4 on the campaign.
- Date/Time: March 2, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena
- TV Coverage: NBA TV, Fox Sports Sun, Fox Sports Wisconsin, TSN
- Sportsbook Odds: Bucks -1.5 | O/U 225.5
- Bucks vs Heat Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers opened Milwaukee as a 1.5-point road favorite with the total Sportsbook at 225.5 points. Milwaukee was 11.5-point chalk when it hosted Miami in October, but the Heat stunned the Bucks 131-126 in overtime despite being without Jimmy Butler.
Milwaukee News & Notes
The Bucks lead the NBA in scoring average and rank second in field-goal percentage, but they can also beat teams by dominating the defensive end of the floor. That’s what Milwaukee did Sunday in Charlotte, holding the Hornets to 35 percent shooting from the field and 23 percent from behind the arc in a 93-85 victory. They also managed to win without second-leading scorer Khris Middleton, who missed his second consecutive game with a neck injury and is questionable for Monday. Giannis Antetokounmpo made up for Middleton’s absence by posting 41 points, 20 rebounds and six assists in just 35 minutes of action.
Although the Bucks’ 83-game streak of scoring 100-plus points came to an end, Milwaukee has now held four of its last five opponents under the century mark. On the season, the Bucks lead the league in field-goal percentage allowed, limiting opponents to just 41 percent shooting.
At 51-8, the Bucks are showing no signs of slowing down. Sunday’s win improved Milwaukee to 20-2 SU in its last 22 games, and the Bucks have gone a sizzling 9-3 ATS since the all-star break. They’ve also thrived when playing for the second straight day, going 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on zero days’ rest.
Miami News & Notes
After losing seven of their first 11 games in February — including losses to the Kings, Hawks, Cavaliers and Timberwolves — the Heat finished the month with back-to-back home victories Friday and Saturday against Dallas and Brooklyn. “I’m encouraged by the two games,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “They weren’t perfect games, but the way we’ve responded to adversity was a good sign.”
Most of Miami’s struggles in February could be attributed to a heavy road schedule. The Heat were on the road for eight of their 13 games last month, losing six of them to drop to 13-18 on the road this year. At AmericanAirlines Arena, the Heat went 4-1 SU and ATS, improving to 25-4 SU and 18-10-1 ATS on the year.
Kendrick Nunn paced the Heat with 22 points in Saturday’s 116-113 win over the Nets, a game Miami led by 14 points with nine minutes to go before having to sweat out the final seconds. Seven other players cracked the double-digit plateau in scoring and Miami turned the ball over just six times — a dramatic decrease from the Heat’s season average of 14.9 per game.
Betting Pick: Heat +1.5
I’m expecting a strong effort from the Heat as they look to see how they measure up with the league-leading Bucks.
- The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The OVER is 7-0 in the Heat’s last 7 games.
- The UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks’ last 7 games at Miami.
