Reeling Bucks Look to Lock Things Down in Game 3

The Miami Heat might have a surprising 2-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks in their best-of-seven Eastern Conference second-round series, but they still don’t have the respect of oddsmakers. The Heat enter Friday’s Game 3 in the Orlando bubble as a 5-point underdog for the third straight game – though the first two worked out rather well for Miami backers.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Milwaukee kicked things off as a 5.5-point favorite; that line is now down to -5, and might drop lower depending on how much confidence the betting public has in the Heat. The total of 222.5 has risen by a point in most spots.

Milwaukee News & Notes

The Bucks boasted the most prolific offense in the NBA in the regular season (118.7 ppg) and hit their stride in Round 1 vs Orlando after scuffling to start the series. Things are much more dire now, with Milwaukee averaging nearly 10 points below its season average against Miami thanks largely to some struggles from the free-throw line, where they’re shooting just 71.8 percent.

While free throws weren’t as much a problem in Game 2 (they went 33-for-39 from the line), their performance from the three-point line certainly was. Milwaukee connected on just seven of its 25 attempts from beyond the arc, while the Heat went 17-for-45 from long range. Miami also used a fast-break advantage, outscoring the Bucks 17-9 in that department, to go up 2-0 in the series.

Miami News & Notes

Just as surprising as the Heat being up 2-0 at this point is the fact that Jimmy Butler has outplayed Giannis Antetokounmpo through the first two games. While Butler’s scoring average is only slightly higher than that of the reigning MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, Butler has been the hero in each of the first two contests, scoring 40 points in Game 1 and hitting the walk-off free throws in Game 2.

One of the other crucial factors has been the turnover category. The Heat have forced 33 Milwaukee turnovers and turned them into a whopping 50 points, while the Bucks have generated 26 turnovers and converted them into only 23 points. Turnovers have been an ongoing problem for Milwaukee, averaging 16.6 per game in the postseason.

Betting Pick: UNDER 223.5 (-110)

Look for the Bucks to address their turnover problems and defensive shortcomings – and while that might not secure that elusive first win of the series, it should help keep the final score under this total.