Bucks Seek 3-0 Stranglehold over Miami

After a blowout victory in Game 2, Milwaukee (48-26 SU, 33-41 ATS) is halfway toward avenging last year’s upset loss to Miami in the Orlando bubble. The Heat (40-34, 35-37-2) look to avoid going down 3-0 in the best-of-seven tonight when they host their first game of the series.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

With Miami in must-win mode, oddsmakers opened the Heat as 1-point home favorites, but action on Milwaukee has since flipped the line. The Bucks were 1.5-point chalk at most books at the time of writing.

Milwaukee News & Notes

There’s a lot the Bucks are doing better so far in this series than they did during last summer’s five-game series loss to Miami in the bubble, but three-point shooting might be the biggest improvement. Milwaukee was lethal from behind the arc in Game 2, setting a franchise playoff record with 22 treys.

Bryn Forbes, acquired last November to bolster Milwaukee’s perimeter shooting, led the way in that department Monday by hitting six of his nine shots from downtown and finishing with 22 points. Bobby Portis is also shooting 50 percent from three-point range in the series for the Bucks, whose 10 triples in the first quarter Monday tied an NBA playoff record for threes in a quarter.

Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have continued to do their usual damage, combining to average more than 50 points in the first two games of the series. Jrue Holiday, another improvement to Milwaukee’s roster since last summer’s series loss to Miami, had 15 assists Monday and has posted double-doubles in points and assists in three of his last four outings.

Miami News & Notes

A two-day break between games couldn’t have come at a better time for Miami as the Heat lick their wounds following Monday’s 132-98 beatdown. Miami has been stellar over the past few years when playing with two days to prepare, going 14-5 SU and ATS in that situation since the start of the 2019 campaign.

There’s certainly plenty that the Heat have to do better going forward. Guard Goran Dragic told reporters that his team needs to be more aggressive at asserting its will in the paint, and Miami has been out-rebounded 125-87 in the series — including 36-21 on the offensive glass.

Offensively, much more is expected from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who have combined to average 14 fewer points per game in this series than they did in the regular season.

At least the Heat should get a boost from playing at home, where Miami is expecting its largest crowd since the pandemic began. A maximum of 17,000 spectators will be allowed to attend Game 3, just 2,600 short of capacity in AmericanAirlines Arena.

Betting Pick: Heat +1.5

The Heat may not win this series, but they have a lot of pride and should bounce back strong from their embarrassing loss in Game 2.