Kicking off the five-game Christmas Day NBA slate, the Milwaukee Bucks head to the bright lights of Madison Square Garden to try and give a lump of coal to the lowly New York Knicks. The Bucks trail the Raptors in the East standings and were riding a four-game winning streak before falling to Miami in their last outing. They are heavily favored to cancel Christmas in New York as the Knicks have dropped nine of their last 10 games and failed to cover the spread in eight of them.
The Bucks opened as 5-point favorites (since moved to -10) with a total of 228.
- The Knicks are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Bucks lead the NBA in points per game (116.9).
- The UNDER has hit in eight of the Bucks’ last 10 games.
Knicks Already Looking To Next Season
They say the NBA season doesn’t actually start until after the Christmas break but the Knicks season may already be over. New York is 9-25 SU in 34 games and is one game out from having the worst record in the league. The Knicks knew they would be shorthanded all season without Kristaps “Unicorn” Porzingis and have a nice collection of talent but their defense is too poor to compete. The Knicks are ranked 27th in points allowed per game (115.9), 29th in opponent field goal percentage (47.9) and 26th in opponent three-point percentage (37.1) which is the trinity of futility for an NBA defense.
Offensively, they have some prospects that will catch your eye and have a wing player in Tim Hardaway Jr. who is averaging 21 points per game but it hasn’t translated to wins in the standings. Historically, the Knicks have been an awful bet on Christmas Day games as they own a 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS record in 11 games on December 25 since the 1993-1994 season.
I’m fading the Knicks in this one as I can’t see them matching up with the Bucks and Giannis Antentokounmpo as he is scoring over 20 points per game in the paint this season and New York ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint (52.5 points). That being said, they were 8.5-point dogs when they hosted the Bucks and won outright back on December 1st, so maybe we might witness a Christmas miracle.
Bucks’ Scoring Attack is Near-Impossible to Stop
Coming off their worst offensive performance this season by only managing 87 points vs the Heat, the Bucks should come out firing in their first Christmas Day game since 1977. That loss on Saturday to the Heat was the second time Milwaukee was held below 100 points this season so the Knicks will want to watch that game tape to see what the Heat did to hold the league’s highest scoring team (116.9) to such low output.
To be fair, Giannis Antetokounmpo had an off night that saw him only score nine points and got into early foul trouble. The Bucks as a whole only shot 20 percent from three-point range (9- for 43) and the Heat are way better defensively than the Knicks. So, consider that game an anomaly and anticipate the Bucks, who also rank in the top 10 in points allowed per game to put the clamps down on New York.
What has been incredible for Milwaukee this season is they have yet to lose two games in a row and may have one of the best wins of the year when they went into TD Garden and dominated the Celtics 120-107. They haven’t been as a reliable cover bet on the road at 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 away games but I still think they win this game handily and have no problem endorsing them to cover the spread.
When Bucks Take the Court, UNDER Seems to Follow
The total opened at 228 and the latest trends seem to point to an UNDER coming through for totals bettors. The UNDER has hit in eight of the Bucks’ last 10 games with an average combined score of 209.3. The UNDER has also been a winning bet for Christmas Day games over the last three seasons with the UNDER hitting in 10 of last 15 games.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I just think the Knicks aren’t very good and the Bucks defense has been superb. So, I fully expect the Bucks and Knicks to fall short of the total at Madison Square Garden.
