The San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most consistent teams at home through the season but all the statistical analysis in the world may not be able to account for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in 18 road games since the start of 2019 and the Greek Freak is a huge front-runner for NBA MVP.
The Bucks opened as 3-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Bucks are 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in 18 road games since January 1st.
- The Bucks are 5-4 SU and ATS in 9 games on the second game of a back-to-back this season but have gone 1-4 SU in their last five games in this scenario. As a favorite in this spot, the Bucks are 3-4 SU and ATS in seven games.
- The Spurs are one of the best home bets in the NBA at 25-7 SU and 20-12 ATS in 32 games. When a home underdog, the Spurs are 7-1 SU and ATS with wins over the Celtics, Thunder, Blazers and Rockets.
- The Spurs are the best three-point shooting team in the league by averaging 42.7 percent on 23.8 attempts in home games. That is not good for the Bucks as they rank 24th in opponent three-point shooting percentage in road games (36.9) on 35.1 attempts.
- The UNDER has hit in San Antonio’s last five games (avg. combined score: 204.8) with three of those games coming at home.
My Best Bet for Bucks vs Spurs
Spurs Moneyline
I’m going to probably be laughed off of Twitter when I post this pick but I genuinely believe the Spurs can win this game because of how efficiently they shoot the three. Gregg Popovich is methodical when coming up with game plans to shut down a team’s best player and their defense will be put to the test to stop the length of Giannis and the deep shooting from the Bucks’ supporting cast. I was initially going to take the Spurs +3 but I feel like if they keep the game this close, I prefer to go after the value.
Milwaukee has a statistical edge in almost every category except for one: their three-point defense. The Spurs are slaughtering teams with good sets and decent shooting that they don’t need to take 40 three-pointers like the Rockets to get the same result. When you factor in that the Bucks are on the second game of a back-to-back and how the Spurs have fared as a home dog this season, I have to side with the home team in this one.
