Two of the top contenders in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks and the Toronto Raptors, will meet in the marquee game on the NBA’s Sunday schedule. Toronto opens as a 5.5-point favorite after winning the first meeting on October 29 in Wisconsin. The total opened at 229.
- The total has gone UNDER in Toronto’s last four games (avg combined score: 209).
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games (avg combined score: 213.25).
- Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
But Aren’t These Offenses Both in the Top Five?
Yes, in fact, Milwaukee has the No. 1 scoring offense in the NBA this season at 120 points per game while shooting a very impressive 48.2 percent from the floor. Meanwhile, Toronto is scoring an average of 116 points per game, earning the No. 5 scoring offense.
However, looking a little closer at the most recent output for these teams, the Raptors are off to their worst month of the season thus far, shooting just 39.3 percent from the floor and scoring 106.8 points per game in December.
Likewise for Milwaukee - who is at a season low of 40 percent from the floor and 114.7 points per game so far this month. This is the first indicator that the total may be set too high.
And They’re Good Defensively Too
Toronto has the No. 7 scoring defense in the NBA at 108 points per game, while Milwaukee is close behind at 110.2. Toronto has kept their last three opponents to just 104.7 points per game while forcing them to shoot 45.5 percent from the floor.
The Bucks have been even better on the defensive side as of late, keeping opponents to 42 percent from the floor while forcing 17.7 turnovers per game this month. In the first game between these teams, Milwaukee held Toronto to just 39 percent from the floor
My Best Bet for This Game
Based on the above trends, I think 229 is too high for the total in this game. I’m betting the UNDER. I’m going to stay away from a spread bet as I don’t think either of these teams is playing its best ball of the season. In the first game, which did go OVER the closing total, the Bucks hit 19 three-pointers, which is a significant outlier and contributing factor to the total going OVER.
It’s a Sunday game where both teams traveled the day before, are coming off losses, and are both traveling again following the game – The Bucks back home and the Raptors to LA. I think there are too many variables at play, so the safest thing to do is play the UNDER.
