The Washington Wizards are still trying to find their identity without John Wall but they’re 6-4 SU this season without their all-star point guard and will look to keep winning with the Milwaukee Bucks in town. The Bucks are coming off a dominant road win over the Rockets and have won five of their last six games on the road.
The Bucks opened up as 6.5-point favorites (since moved to -3) with a total of 230.5.
- The Wizards are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
- The Bucks give up the fewest points in the paint in the NBA.
- The OVER has hit in 9 of the Wizards’ last 12 games at home.
Wizards Have Been Feisty at Home
Although they’re 17-25 SU this season in 42 games, the Wizards have still shown they can win games at Capital One Arena. The Wiz are 12-7 SU in 19 games in D.C. and have won eight of their last 11 games on their home court. The glaring factor for Washington in any game going forward is the talent drop-off after Bradley Beal because with John Wall out, they now have to rely on swingmen like Trevor Ariza and Otto Porter, who are both complementary pieces more so than traditional scorers. Ariza was known for his defense and ability to can the three when he was acquired by the Wiz but since his arrival, he’s averaging a putrid 27 percent from deep.
The key to the Wizards winning this game will be their ability to hit the three and for Bradley Beal to carry them offensively. In the 10 games without John Wall this season, Beal is averaging 28.1 points per game and he was integral to topping the Sixers in their last home game, shooting 13-for-21 from the floor when Washington beat Philly 123-106.
I want to bet against the Wizards so badly in this game but the eye test has shown that with Wall out of the lineup, they move the ball more quickly and play within the offense. This allows Beal to be more than just a catch-and-shoot guard and could give the Bucks fits. If bettors are thinking of going with the Wiz tonight, I’d just take them on the moneyline and get the better value.
Bucks’ Scoring Continues To Be Difficult To Stop
When you have a genetic freak like Giannis Antetokounmpo in your lineup and all five of your starters are averaging double digits in points, it would almost seem like a lock for your team to lead the NBA in points per game. Well, that formula will be curbed for at least tonight as Giannis isn’t expected to suit up, which puts a whole different light on this matchup.
The Bucks should be able to at least give the Wizards’ frontcourt trouble when going to the rim as Milwaukee leads the NBA in limiting points allowed in the paint, is ranked 10th in points allowed per game overall and is first in opponent field-goal percentage (43.2 percent).
I’m likely going to avoid the Bucks to cover the spread in this one because they’re a different team without Giannis in the lineup, but for betting’s sake the Bucks are 2-0 SU and ATS in two games when he doesn’t suit up.
High Total? No Problem
The total opened at 230.5 and in a game featuring two top-10 offenses and one historically bad defense, the OVER looks more attractive to totals bettors. The OVER has hit in nine of the Wizards’ last 12 games at home with an average combined score of 236.9 points per game. Washington averages over 117 points per game at home but gives up 116.5 points in those contests so I expect more of the same in this one.
My Pick Is…
I’ve gone back and forth between the Wiz moneyline and Bucks spread and will mainly side with the Bucks for this reason: points in the paint. The Bucks guard under the rim better than any team in the NBA while the Wiz allow just under 50 points in the key. I think the Wizards will play hard but will ultimately fall short due to the talent discrepancy. They also have fared well without Giannis this season.
