The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Boston Celtics are cashing tickets for OVER bettors at a torrid pace. An amazing 14 of Boston’s last 17 games have gone OVER the closing total, while the OVER is 9-1 in the T-Wolves’ last 10. The teams played to a 227-point OVER back on December 1 in Minneapolis. Boston opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 217.5.
- Minnesota is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games when playing Boston.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games between these teams.
- The Celtics are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games at home.
Timberwolves vs Celtics Game Center
Both Teams Among Top Scorers in December
Boston and Minnesota have the 12th and 13th scoring offenses respectively over the first three months of the season, however, December was a prolific month that saw each team outperform its season average.
The Celtics were actually the top scoring team in the Association in December, averaging 117.2 points per game on offense. The Timberwolves had the No. 6 scoring offense in December, netting 113.9 points per game.
As I mentioned above, Minnesota has seen the total go OVER in nine of its last 10 games, and that’s because in combination with the No. 6 scoring offense, the T-Wolves had the No. 21 scoring defense in December at 111.6 points per game.
Kyrie Irving is OUT
Boston’s leading scorer and game controller, Kyrie Irving, had his eye scratched in the Celtics’ last game vs San Antonio and will not play tonight. This could have a bigger impact than usual as Irving is also the Celtics’ top three-point shooter as they play against the No. 30 three-point defense in the NBA.
Boston is shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc in its past three games and 33.6 percent overall this season (third in the NBA). Boston hit 17 three-pointers in the first meeting – with only two by Kyrie.
December was Boston’s Highest-Scoring Month
The final month of 2018 saw the Celtics score more points and allow more points on average than they did during the first two months of the season. After scoring 102.4 points per game in October and 110.7 points per game in November, Brad Stevens’ group scored 117.2 points per game in December.
However, the team that made defensive play its hallmark allowed more points in December (109.3) than it had all season, yielding a full 12 points more per game than it allowed in October.
Both Minnesota and Boston have allowed 116.7 points per game in their last three outings.
My Best Bet for This Game
Who am I to mess with this OVER trend? I think the Sportsbook total has already been adjusted for the potential absence of Irving and that gives totals bettors a nice number of 217.5 to work with. Based on the trends and stats outlined above, OVER 217.5 is my play for tonight.
