Having not played with all of their all-stars since November 5, the Golden State Warriors will have the entire roster at Steve Kerr’s disposal when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Oracle Arena. Draymond Green is expected to suit up tonight and should make this squad that has won six of its last eight games even more formidable. The Timberwolves haven’t had much bite on the road this season at 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS in 11 away games and have dropped their last five games in Oakland by an average of 16.2 points.
The Warriors opened as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
- The Warriors are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in 11 games this season with Curry, Thompson, Durant and Green in the lineup.
- The Timberwolves are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the last five games at Oracle Arena.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Warriors’ last eight games.
Timberwolves vs Warriors Game Center
Overstating the Obvious: Warriors are Tough To Beat with Full Roster
Prior to the drama and infighting among teammates, the Warriors were on an incredible run to start the season. Golden State was 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in 11 games but then Stephen Curry got hurt and with the engine that drives this team on the shelf, the losses started to pile up and finger-pointing was rampant.
It looks like even without Draymond Green, the Dubs had started to right the ship as they’ve won six of their last eight games and still sit first in the Western Conference. Steph Curry is averaging 29.8 points per game in his first four games back from injury and he looks like he hasn’t missed a beat as he’s shooting 52 percent from deep. This will be his first home game since his return.
I think with the championship group back together, I’m backing the Warriors as they’ll be in front of their home crowd, they’re 11-2 SU in 13 home games and their two losses were when both Curry and Green were out of the lineup. They almost can’t make this line high enough.
Timberwolves Are Fade Material at Oracle Arena
You gotta hand it to Minnesota. After getting pennies on the dollar for sending Jimmy Butler to Philly, the T-Wolves could’ve easily folded and tanked for a chance to draft one of the Duke superstars. Well, Tom Thibodeau had other plans and has been coaching the hell out of this group by leading them to a 9-4 SU and ATS record in 13 games with the new-look roster.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been finally living up to his potential as a first overall pick as he’s averaging 24.6 points per game and 11.2 rebounds in those 13 games. Trade acquisitions Dario Saric and Robert Covington have been playing their role, which is allowing Towns and Andrew Wiggins to flourish in their scoring roles.
However, it’s the defense that has been Thibodeau’s calling card and he’s positioned this group to be one of the better teams in the league on that side of the court. The Timberwolves have held teams to 101.3 points per game during this 13-game stretch and have kept teams to less than 100 points seven times.
While it’s easy to gush about both of these teams, the reality is that when Golden State is fully healthy, everyone else is just playing for second place. I can’t endorse a Timberwolves cover bet facing a rejuvenated Warriors squad, especially considering they’ve lost five straight at Oracle Arena by an average of 16.2 points.
Should You Take the OVER?
I think you should if you plan to wager on the total as no UNDER is safe with the Warriors involved. Even without their full group, the OVER has hit in six of their last eight games with an average combined score of 228.5. The Warriors are averaging 116.4 points per game this season and I expect them to go for at least 125 and for the Timberwolves to shoot a lot more threes to keep pace, which makes the OVER very juicy.
My Pick Is…
To take the Warriors at -10.5 and I would likely take it if it was up to -14.5. I think the Dubs are nearly unstoppable on their home court and with the band back together, I’ve seen this movie enough times to know the 10.5 points is a perfect cover spot for Golden State.
