Having dropped six of their last seven games, the New Orleans Pelicans are in a free fall in the Western Conference and face the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Pellies are 16-21 SU in 37 games this season but have done most of their damage at the Smoothie King Center where they’re 12-6 SU in 18 home games. Pelicans backers will bank on them getting back to their winning ways at home because New Orleans has not fared well in this matchup, dropping its last five games vs Minnesota.
The Pelicans opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 229.5.
- The Timberwolves have won their last 5 games vs the Pelicans (avg. win margin: 12.1).
- The Pelicans are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Pelicans’ last 11 games (avg. combined score: 222.64).
Pelicans vs Timberwolves Game Center
Pelicans Taking Swan Dive at the Worst Time
There’s still over half the season left to play but there’s something not right about the Pelicans this season. Having the best player on the court usually will lead any team to a winning record in the NBA, which is why it’s confusing to see the Pels struggle and be five games below .500. New Orleans’ defense has been awful for most of the season and has reared its ugly head in December as the Pelicans have allowed 115.3 points per game (ranked 26th). That has led them to a 5-9 SU record in 14 games this month.
Since their loss in Boston on December 10, New Orleans has gone 2-7 SU in nine games and the Pelicans now sit 14th in the Western Conference. Anthony Davis will shoulder most of the blame but when you lead the team in points, rebounds, steals and blocks, something tells me that maybe the supporting cast needs to get their poop in a group.
Although they’ll have the best player on the floor, I’m not confident in the Pelicans’ ability to win and cover the spread against a feisty Timberwolves squad. Considering they’re 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs teams with losing records, the Pellies are a team to fade right now.
Timberwolves Have Owned This Matchup Lately
At 17-19 SU in 36 games, there hasn’t been much to brag about in the Twin Cities when it comes to the Timberwolves but to their credit, they’re doing much better than I thought they would after trading Jimmy Butler to the Sixers. The T-Wolves are coming off an excellent road win in Miami and have won their last three away games.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a beast over the last three games by averaging 28.3 points and a whopping 19 rebounds while draining six of his 12 three-point attempts. I like his chances against the Brow in this matchup, especially considering the T-Wolves have won the last five meetings with the Pelicans (5-0 ATS) with an average win margin of 12.1 points per game.
The T-Wolves are on the second game of a back-to-back and they haven’t fared well in the spot this season (1-2 SU and ATS). With their record on the road (5-13 SU in 18 games this season), they could be gassed out by the fourth quarter. So, I’m steering clear of the Timberwolves in this one.
Pellies Games Leading to UNDERs Lately
The total opened at 229.5 and I like the UNDER in this game and here’s why: The Pelicans’ offense has fallen off this month and is down to 10th in the NBA (113.1) and the UNDER has hit in eight of their last 11 games with an average combined score of 222.64. Another reason I like the UNDER is that although the trends will tell you that the average combined score for the Timberwolves’ nine road games this month is 224.1 points per game, one of those games – a barnburner vs the Kings totaling 271 points – pushed that stat through the roof.
