After an emotional home win over the Jazz when Derrick Rose dropped 50 points, the Minnesota Timberwolves head to the West Coast to take on the daunting Golden State Warriors. The T-Wolves have yet to win a road game this season and getting their first one at Oracle Arena could be a stretch since they’re 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games in Oakland with an average losing margin of 16 points per game.
The Warriors opened as 11-point favorites with a total of 239.5.
- The Warriors are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home (average win margin: 16.8).
- Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 125 points per game.
- The total has gone OVER in the Warriors’ last five games (avg. combined score: 250.6).
Timberwolves vs Warriors Game Center
As Usual, the Warriors are Insanely Good
I’m sure most NBA writers are running out of superlatives to refer to the Warriors but when they’re dominating like this, it’s hard not to revere this team. The Dubs are leading the NBA at 125 points per game and are tops in field-goal percentage and three-point shooting percentage. The offense flows so naturally when you have four of the top 15 players in the NBA so it’s no surprise to see Golden State also leading the NBA in assists.
This is why an 11-point spread shouldn’t scare bettors off because one of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson could explode for 50 points and completely demoralize a team. The Warriors have hit 50 three-pointers in just their last three games while shooting an insane 51 percent from deep in that span. Factoring in that they’ve won seven straight games at home by an average of 16.8 points per game, the Dubs look like a team on a mission and I for one refuse to bet against them.
Timberwolves’ Defense Could Get Shredded
Although the warm and fuzzy story of Derrick Rose scoring a career-high 50 points is a nice story, it may be short-lived heading into Oracle Arena. The Timberwolves have lost four straight games in Oakland by an average of 16 points per game and the cloud of drama still hanging over Minnesota could derail the good vibes.
The T-Wolves are ranked 26th in points allowed per game while allowing shooters to average 37 percent from the three-point line which plays right into the Warriors’ hands. Jimmy Butler is expected to play tonight after sitting out their last game vs the Jazz but even his presence won’t be enough when you’ve got arguably the greatest basketball team ever assembled on the other side of the court.
The Timberwolves have yet to win on the road this season and have lost five straight away from the Twin Cities so anyone banking on a crazy Minnesota moneyline wager may want to reconsider.
Is there any value in taking an OVER?
The total opened at 240 and while that is an intimidating number to take an OVER, Warriors games may be the only ones you can consider it with. The OVER has hit in the Warriors’ last five games with an average combined score of 250.6 points per game. I personally would avoid this OVER as only four of the Dubs’ nine games this season have gone over 239 points but given how they’re playing right now and how scoring is way up, bettors can’t be faulted for thinking another scorefest is on tap at Oracle Arena.
My Pick Is…
To take the Warriors to cover the spread. Golden State looks to be on a quest to destroy the league this season with the uncertainty about whether Kevin Durant is coming back next year and I could envision the Warriors winning tonight by 20 or more.
