After getting humiliated on their home floor, the Los Angeles Lakers look to regroup with the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves in town. The Lakers were dismantled by the Raptors in their last game 121-107 and are now 3-7 ATS in 10 games this season, including a loss to the T-Wolves. The Wolves, on the other hand, have dropped all six of their road games this season and are in the midst of a five-game West Coast trip.
The Lakers opened as 5-point favorites with a total at 240.
- The Timberwolves are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the road.
- The Lakers are 3-7 ATS in 10 games this season.
- The UNDER has hit in four of the Lakers’ last five games.
Timberwolves vs Lakers Game Center
Minnesota Looking For First Road Win in Hollywood
These two teams faced each other just over a week ago and the Timberwolves are hoping to duplicate that performance. The T-Wolves dropped 124 points on the Lakers and Jimmy Butler played out of his mind as he scored 32 points and went 6-for-7 from three-point range. Butler is expected to suit up tonight but his antics and disconnection to the team make this game hard to cap.
On the road this season, the T-Wolves are only averaging 106.3 points per game (ranked 23rd) while ranking 28th in field-goal percentage and 27th in rebounds and losing by an average margin of 12.1 points per game. I’d consider the Timberwolves as a 5-point dog but think with the way they've played on the road this season even with Butler in the lineup, it's hard to feel good about their chances.
Lakers Have Been Underwhelming on the Spread
As I wrote prior to the season, the Lakers would be tough to trust to cover the spread in the early stages of the 2018-19 campaign. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in 10 games, which is comparable to how LeBron-led teams have fared when he puts on a new jersey like in 2010 with the Heat or 2014 with the Cavaliers.
The Lakers’ defense continues to be at the crux of the bad showings they’ve had this season by allowing 120 points per game, which ranks 28th in the Association. Their recent loss to the Raptors was a huge red flag as they were down 42-17 at the end of the first quarter with Serge Ibaka roasting LA’s frontcourt to the tune of 34 points on 15-for-17 shooting.
As mentioned, if Jimmy Butler doesn’t play, then the Lakers should win handily as they were in control of this team when they faced off nine days ago until Butler hit five threes in the fourth quarter. Due to the uncertainty of Butler’s status and the Lakers’ poor defense, I would avoid the spread on either side tonight.
Inflated Total Is Great News for UNDER Bettors
The total opened at 240 and dropped to 238 at some sportsbooks and I still think the UNDER may be the best play for this matchup. The UNDER has hit in four of the Lakers’ last five games with an average combined score of 227.8 points per game. While that may seem like a lot of points, oddsmakers seem to have inflated the total for almost all Lakers games this season with the lowest closing total in their last nine games at 232.5.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER 238. The Lakers’ defense has started to pick up recently as they’ve held teams to less than 120 points in five of their last seven games and the Timberwolves’ offense hasn’t been exactly gangbusters this season at 106.3 points per game on the road. Since neither team can be trusted on the spread, I’m opting for the safe play.
