Plenty of Points Expected When Mavericks Host Pelicans

The first meeting of the season between New Orleans (11-13 SU, 11-13 ATS) and Dallas (12-14, 10-16) has the highest Sportsbook total on the Friday board, with good reason. The Pels have gone OVER in 15 of their last 19 while Dallas has eclipsed the total in five straight.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Dallas hasn’t covered the spread in its last three victories and is 0-9 ATS in its last nine at home, so it’s understandable why oddsmakers didn’t make the Mavs any bigger a favorite in this one. Dallas was favored by 4.5, 6.5 and 9 points in three meetings with the Pelicans last season.

New Orleans News & Notes

Horrific three-point defense Wednesday in Chicago killed the Pelicans’ chances of a five-game winning streak as the Bulls drained a franchise-record 25 shots from behind the arc. It marked the eighth time already this season that New Orleans has allowed an opponent to knock down at least 18 triples.

Fortunately for the Pelicans, Dallas is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the NBA, shooting just 34.1 percent from behind the arc. However, New Orleans must still be concerned about a defense that allowed the Bulls to score 40-plus points in both the first and third quarters Wednesday. Defensive issues are nothing new to the Pels, who have now gone OVER in 15 of their last 19 games.

Of course, the other half of that OVER formula is the Pelicans’ own offense, which continues to click at a high rate. Zion Williamson led New Orleans with an efficient 29 points on 12-for-18 shooting against Chicago and might have done more damage had he not gotten into foul trouble for the second straight game. The Pels have not been held below 109 points in any of their last 11 games.

Dallas News & Notes

All of a sudden, the Mavericks have become specialists at winning close games. Dallas’ last three victories have come by a combined margin of eight points, including Wednesday’s 118-117 win over the Hawks. The Mavs, who had the fourth-worst winning percentage last season in games that were within five points at the two-minute mark, outscored Atlanta 37-27 in the final quarter.

Luka Doncic posted his league-leading seventh triple-double of the season, collecting 10 rebounds and 10 assists to go with 28 points on 18 field-goal attempts, and Jalen Brunson added 21 points off the bench. Four other Mavericks also scored in double figures as Dallas went OVER the total for the fifth straight game and sixth time in its last seven.

Dallas’ recent narrow victories may be good for morale and the team’s win-loss record, but they haven’t made Mavericks backers very happy. The Mavs have covered just one of their last 11 games overall and are on an 0-9 ATS skid at American Airlines Center, where they’re 5-7 SU this season.

Betting Pick: OVER 233.5

Both of these teams have been successful lately playing high-scoring games, and it’s hard to imagine anything different in this one.