The Nuggets are riding a seven-game winning streak and playing to the OVER with much more regularity. Powered by an uptick in production from their star player, they host the Pelicans and their 28th-ranked defense on Christmas Day, and a low total makes the OVER an intriguing play.
- Date/Time: December 25, 10:30 p.m. ET
- Arena: Pepsi Center
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Denver -10 | O/U 220
- Pelicans vs Nuggets Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Pelicans are 1-4 SU in their last five games at Denver, while the Nuggets are riding a seven-game win streak and playing some of their best basketball, so the second-best team in Denver opens as a 10-point home favorite over New Orleans and its 8-23 record. The total opened low at 220 points, due in part to Denver’s top-ranked defense going against a pedestrian Pelicans offense.
New Orleans News & Notes
Currently sporting a middle-of-the-pack offense and the third-worst defense in the NBA, the Pelicans have an 8-23 record. After enduring a 13-game losing streak, they’ve shown signs of life recently, winning two of their last three games.
New Orleans has been led by a breakout season from former second overall pick Brandon Ingram, who is averaging a career-high 25 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, but the Pelicans need to see more from another former No. 2 pick, Lonzo Ball.
Ball is averaging just 10.1 points per game, while seeing his rebounding and assist totals decline for the third straight season, and he’s again shooting well under 40 percent.
Despite covering the spread in just three of their last 13 games, the Pelicans can draw upon their recent history of playing Denver tough: they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Nuggets.
Denver News & Notes
The Nuggets have won seven straight games, they sit second in the Western Conference with a 21-8 record and they allow the fewest points against in the NBA. But the Nuggets don’t seem to be considered in the same class as the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers … perhaps because star center Nikola Jokic was underwhelming early in the season.
After averaging 20.1 points per game a year ago, Jokic was averaging just 16 points per game, while not asserting himself and dominating games the way he did last season. He’s starting to look like the Jokic we’ve expected, however, as over Denver’s recent winning streak, he’s averaged 21.9 points, 10.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists — with three triple-doubles.
Jokic’s increased production has been a big reason why a Denver team that saw the OVER hit in six of their first 23 games has now seen their game totals go OVER in five of the last six games.
Facing a weak New Orleans defense on Christmas Day, don’t be surprised if Jokic and the Nuggets have another high-scoring game in them.
Betting Pick: OVER 220
The Pelicans struggle to guard anyone, and with Denver’s — and Jokic’s — offensive surge, I think this low total is perfect for the OVER.
- New Orleans is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver’s last 10 games against an opponent in the Southwest Division.
- Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games.
