It might be an all-time low point for the New Orleans Pelicans. Their franchise player Anthony Davis has made known his intentions of playing elsewhere and now the Pellies have to block that out of their minds when they take the floor vs the Houston Rockets tonight.
The Pellies have dropped three straight games without the Brow and are 2-7 SU (4-5 ATS) this season with him out of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Rockets are getting their own star player back in the fold as Chris Paul has returned from injury and can add more of a scoring complement for James Harden.
The Rockets opened as 10-point favorites with a total of 234.
- The Rockets are 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
- The Pelicans are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS in 9 games this season without Anthony Davis.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Rockets’ last 10 home games.
Pelicans vs Rockets Game Center
Rockets Have Been Excellent Lately at the Toyota Center
Starting their slow climb up the Western Conference standings, the Rockets continue to weather the storm while key players are out with injury and it all starts with MVP favorite James Harden. The bearded lefty is on a 23-game streak of scoring 30 or more points and it’s no coincidence that Houston is 17-6 SU in those contests while going 13-9-1 against the spread. At home, the Rockets have gone 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at the Toyota Center.
Since the start of January, the Rockets are taking an obscene 48.8 three-point attempts per game (first in the NBA) and while they’re only hitting 33.7 percent of those shots, it’s a perfect strategy to take against the Pelicans. New Orleans is allowing 39.6 percent shooting on the perimeter this month on 34.3 attempts, which both rank in the bottom five in the league for January.
I know a double-digit spread can scare off bettors (myself included) but this feels like one of those times where it should come through. The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS in four home games as double-digit favorites this season and with Chris Paul back in the lineup, Houston can have a more balanced attack instead of just letting Harden and Eric Gordon spot up from three for the whole game.
Do the Pelicans Have A Shot at Covering?
Well, of course they do. This is still an NBA team with legitimate players on the roster but no Anthony Davis severely hampers their chances. The Pelicans are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS in nine games this season when Davis isn’t in the lineup but in their lone game as a double-digit underdog, they covered the spread and lost by only six points to the Thunder.
Let’s look at some of the positives for New Orleans’ chances. They have a guard in Jrue Holiday who is averaging 21.2 points per game and combines with Julius Randle to score just under 41 points per game this season. They along with Davis have pushed the Pelicans to be the fifth-best scoring team in the NBA this season. The bad news is that neither player is a great three-point shooter and their best shooters – Davis, E’Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic – are out with injury along with Randle.
I want to believe that the Pelicans can keep this game close to justify taking them on a cover bet but to be so short-handed against a Rockets team trending in the other direction makes me skeptical that they can hang with Houston.
How to Bet the Total
The total opened at 234.5 and both of these teams are scoring at will lately as they both rank in the top six in points scored per game in January. In Houston’s case, the OVER has hit in seven of its last 10 games at home with an average combined score of 238.6 points per game and the Pelicans are one of the worst defenses in the league this month and don’t have Anthony Davis to protect the rim. I think if you’re betting the total, you have to go with the OVER.
My Pick Is…
To take the Rockets to win and cover the spread. I don’t typically like taking double-digit favorites but the Pelicans are so thin in the lineup that I can’t see them keeping this game within 10 points. The Pellies just got the worst news in the history of the franchise, so they could be primed for a huge letdown.
