The New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat wound up on opposite sides of surprising results in their season openers. And while the Pelicans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) wouldn’t mind pulling off another upset victory on Christmas Day in Miami, the Heat (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) have other ideas as the defending Eastern Conference champions make their home-court debut.
- Date/Time: December 25, 12 noon ET
- Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Heat -5.5 | O/U 229 (Line History)
- Pelicans vs Heat Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites, but that line has shifted to -5 in the majority of spots. The total has seen a more significant shift, from 229 down to 226.
New Orleans News & Notes
The Pelicans have high hopes in Year 2 of the Zion Williamson era – and while they got off to a great start with a 113-99 win over the Toronto-turned-Tampa Bay Raptors, the best part might have been that they won despite a quiet effort from Williamson (15 points, 10 rebounds in 30 minutes). Five players finished with 15 or more points, led by Brandon Ingram with 24.
Williamson will be the focal point of opposing defenses on a nightly basis – which means plenty of scrutiny for the 2019 No. 1 pick. And he already has work to do after committing a team-high six turnovers in the victory over the Raptors. The UNDER on Zion’s point prop total should be a strong play moving forward unless he’s able to take better care of the basketball.
Miami News & Notes
The Heat looked nothing like the team that rolled to the NBA Finals last season, dropping a 113-107 decision to an Orlando Magic team that barely reached the postseason last year. Ball security was a gigantic problem for Miami as it committed 22 turnovers in defeat – 13 coming courtesy of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Orlando turned those gaffes into 24 points.
Butler had an eventful game as he looks to build upon an incredible postseason run. He filled the stat sheet with 19 points, seven assists and seven steals – and just as important to Heat fans and bettors, he didn’t attempt a single three-pointer. Miami wouldn’t mind if that trend continued, with Butler shooting just 24.1 percent from deep last year (and 33.3 percent in his career).
Betting Pick: UNDER 226 (-110)
We’re less confident in the pick here than when the total was at 229, but we still see this one being more of a defensive contest than oddsmakers are predicting.
- The Pelicans went 12-12 SU vs the East last season.
- Miami went 29-7 SU at AmericanAirlines Arena in 2019-20.
- The Heat are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 head-to-head meetings.
