The New Orleans Pelicans embark on a four-game road swing with their first stop coming at the Fiserv Forum as they visit the Central-leading Milwaukee Bucks. This is the first meeting this season between these two clubs and New Orleans has won each of the last three contests against Milwaukee, but it is the Bucks who are the 8.5-point favorites in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 232 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in each of Milwaukee’s last seven games (avg. combined score: 206.71).
- The total has gone UNDER in each of New Orleans’ last five games (avg. combined score: 215.4).
- Milwaukee is 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven games (avg. winning margin: 11.8).
New Orleans vs Milwaukee Game Center
Bucks punish visiting teams at the Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee is eyeing its first three-game winning streak since it won three in a row in mid-November, and it has won four of its last five games overall. The Bucks’ offense has fallen off recently, but their defense has stepped up at the same time. This season, they lead the league in points per game at 117.6, but over their last 10 games, they’ve averaged just 109.7 ppg, which ranks 17th in the league.
On defense, they have surrendered 108.8 ppg this year, which is the 12th-fewest, but that figure has dropped to 106.6 ppg over the last 10 games, which is the 10th-fewest over that span. At the Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee has a 13-3 SU record with an average winning margin of 17.77, averaging the second-most home ppg at 119.5, while limiting opponents to just 106 ppg. It should be noted, though, that the three losses the Bucks have endured at home have all come against Western Conference opponents.
Defensively, they are very aggressive contesting shots, leading the league with 75 contested shots per game, which has led to their opponents shooting just 43.7 percent from the floor, tied for the lowest percentage in the league. Meanwhile, offensively, Milwaukee averages the third-most points in the paint per game, while New Orleans gives up the sixth-most points in the paint per game.
Pelicans struggling to find consistency
New Orleans has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over its last 11 games, coming off a 102-96 defeat to Miami and now hitting the road for a four-game trip. The Pelicans are having a tough time away from home this season, posting a 4-11 record. Since the start of November, they are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS with an average losing margin of 8.22.
On the season, they are averaging the second-most points per game at 116.7 and on the road that dips slightly to 113.2, which is still the fifth-most in the Association. They do most of their damage down low with their leading scorer Anthony Davis, who is averaging 28 points per game.
Nearly half of New Orleans’ points come in the paint at 49.5 percent, which doesn’t bode well for their matchup tonight as Milwaukee surrenders the fewest points in the paint per game at just 40.5. Meanwhile, the Pellies have been a bit of a disaster defensively, giving up 115.1 ppg, which is the fifth-most in the league. This could be attributed to allowing their opponents to get open looks as they surrender the seventh-most assists against per game at 25.2.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Both teams have been UNDER machines recently, yet Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 232 points. Milwaukee has gone UNDER in each of its last seven games with an average combined score of 206.71, while New Orleans has gone UNDER in each of its last five with an average combined score of 215.4.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have averaged the 14th-fewest points per game over their last 10 games at 109.7, while also clamping down defensively, surrendering just 106.6 ppg. Lastly, the Pelicans’ main attack is getting the ball in Anthony Davis’ hands to score around the rim, but the Bucks allow the fewest points in the paint per game at just 40.5.
My take on New Orleans vs Milwaukee
I like the UNDER 232 points between New Orleans and Milwaukee. It seems that the Bucks have made a transition to more of a defensive mindset recently and sportsbooks haven’t caught up yet. New Orleans, or more aptly, Anthony Davis, is going to struggle to find plenty of room to put up points against Giannis Antetokounmpo in the paint and that will limit their point production.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee contests the most shots per game in the league, which has led to opponents shooting just 43.7 percent from the floor, the lowest percentage in the NBA. Lastly, both the Pelicans and Bucks have had slower paces of play over their last 10 games, as on the season they rank fourth and fifth respectively, but they have dropped to ninth and 10th over the last 10 games.
