Two Western Conference foes will tip off in Houston tonight as the Rockets host the New Orleans Pelicans in Part 2 of Sportsbook night in the NBA. The Rockets were a good fourth quarter away from making it to the NBA Finals last season and are 21-4 SU in their last 25 home games. They’ll take on the upstart Pellies, who were led to the second round of the playoffs by Anthony Davis last year and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games on the road.
The Rockets opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 229.
- Houston led the NBA in three-point attempts last season.
- The Pelicans were 30-16 ATS in 46 road games last year (including playoffs).
- The total has gone UNDER in the Rockets’ last five games (avg. combined score: 196.8).
Pelicans vs Rockets Game Center
Three Or Layup for the Rockets
The Rockets begin the long road of climbing the proverbial Mount Everest of the NBA as they set out to stake their claim as the best team in the league. Houston’s offseason included a few changes to the roster that has experts pegging them to win less than 60 games this year and the biggest swap was at small forward of Trevor Ariza for Carmelo Anthony. Anthony was a huge disappointment in OKC last season, averaging a career-low 16.2 points per game, and isn’t exactly known for his defense, which was what made Ariza such an integral part of this roster.
But that was last year and it’s not like the Rockets don’t still have reigning MVP James Harden and point god Chris Paul. Those two led H-Town to the best record in the NBA last season and the Rockets were nearly impossible to beat when Harden, Paul and Clint Capela were in the lineup, at 35-4 SU in 39 games during the regular season. The Rockets’ run-and-gun style of three-pointers and layups allowed them to lead the NBA in three-point attempts with 42.3 shots per game. That figure is kind of incredible when you see the next team was Brooklyn with 35 attempts per game.
For spread bettors, the Rockets weren’t as appealing for a cover bet. Last year when they were favored at home, they went 19-1 SU but only 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games. The main reason why they failed to cover is they were a double-digit favorite in 14 of those games and their average winning margin was only 9.3 points per game. When favored by 7 or more at home, their record was 8-12 ATS over the last 20. For those reasons, it may be difficult to endorse a spread bet for Houston tonight.
Pellies May Be A Sneaky Spread Bet
Having a top-three player in the world can be enough to get you in the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. Just ask Anthony Davis, who was a monster last season for the Pelicans and led them to the postseason for the second time in five seasons. Davis had his coming-out party vs the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs when he averaged 33 points, 11.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game in the sweep.
The Pellies finished last season as the third-highest scoring team in the league behind the Warriors and Rockets while finishing third in assists and blocks. That could be tough to duplicate for this roster as it’s currently constructed because Rajon Rondo did a lot more in the backcourt than bettors realize and Jrue Holiday can’t play 48 minutes every night.
Due to their talent and familiarity with the Rockets, New Orleans could be an intriguing spread wager tonight as it went 30-16 ATS in 46 road games last year (including playoffs) and went 3-1 ATS in four games vs Houston. With Davis on the floor, anything is possible and I expect the Pelicans to keep it close tonight.
UNDER Should Be On Bettors’ Radars
The total opened at 229.5 and the UNDER may be the best play tonight in this matchup. The UNDER has hit in the Rockets’ last five games with an average combined score of 196.8 points per game. Both of these teams may find it difficult to score on each other due to the matchups on the perimeter and with the UNDER hitting in 16 of the last 23 games in this matchup, I expect this game to go UNDER.
My Pick is…
To take the UNDER. 229.5 is a fairly high total for an NBA game and while I expect these offenses to both top 100 points, the defensive ability for these teams is underrated. I expect a lot of iso-ball plays and half-court offense to prevent them from running and gunning on the perimeter.
