Sitting pretty at fourth in the Western Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers look to continue their winning ways at home when they host the New Orleans Pelicans. The Blazers have won five straight games at the Moda Center and whupped the Pellies by 14 points when they hosted them at the beginning of November. However, the Blazers may still have some PTSD when facing the Pelicans as they were swept in four games by New Orleans during last year’s playoffs.
The Blazers opened as 3-point favorites with a total of 233.5.
- The Blazers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- The Pelicans are 2nd in the NBA in points scored per game in January (125).
- The OVER has hit in the last 3 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 242).
Pelicans vs Blazers Game Center
The Betting Case for the Blazers
Only 4.5 games back of the Warriors for the Western Conference lead, the Blazers have picked up right where they left off from last year when they won their division and got the third seed in the playoffs. The Blazers have won five straight games at home by an average of 15.8 points while covering the spread in four of them.
When at the Moda Center, the Blazers have been the top rebounding team in the NBA (50.3) and rank seventh in turnovers and fifth in fouls, which means they’re taking care of the basketball while limiting second-chance points.
Of course, it’s easy to remember the first-round matchup last April when they had no answer for Anthony Davis and were outplayed at every turn, but the emergence of center Jusuf Nurkic may have turned the tables in favor of Portland. In nine games this month, Nurkic is averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2.2 blocks and notched his first triple-double this season in the Blazers’ last game vs Cleveland.
The Betting Case for the Pelicans
Matchups, matchups, matchups. This is where the Pelicans exploit teams as there are few (if any) defenses that can stop Anthony Davis. The Brow’s stat line this month would be more of a storyline if James Harden wasn’t rewriting scoring records but Davis is putting up numbers like he’s playing on rookie mode in NBA2K. He’s averaging 33.4 points, 16 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.4 blocks and is spearheading the Pelicans’ surge back into playoff relevancy.
Davis, along with the supporting cast, can obviously score the basketball as evidenced by the Pelicans’ average of 117.5 points per game that ranks third in the NBA. On the flip side, though, New Orleans is giving up 115.5 points per game and allowing teams to shoot 36.9 percent from three.
Obviously, the Pelicans know they can play with (and beat) this team when their defense comes to play. They swept this Blazers roster in the first round of the playoffs last year and own wins this season over some high-profile teams like the Raptors, Thunder, Spurs and Nuggets.
Poor Pelicans Defense Could Lead to A Ton of Points
The total opened at 233.5 and while this total seems very high, it wouldn’t be insane to consider the OVER. The OVER has hit in the last three games in this matchup with an average combined score of 242 points per game. Both teams are ranked in the bottom five in defending the three-point shot and both rank in the top 10 in points scored per game this month.
My Pick Is…
To go with the home team and take the Blazers to win and cover the spread. I think Portland understands what it did wrong in that playoff series last year and showed that when hosting the Pelicans back in November. The Blazers are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as 3-point favorites and are holding teams to 108 points per game in January.
