Banged-Up Bucks Home Faves vs Slumping Knicks

Injuries have factored into a slow start to the season for the Milwaukee Bucks (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS), who will still be without a couple of starters when they host New York (5-3, 4-4) on Friday night. The Knicks have lost two straight and are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games against the Bucks.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Milwaukee has been a double-digit favorite in six of the last seven meetings, but the Bucks’ injuries and COVID-19 issues caused oddsmakers to make them just 5-point favorites in this contest. Milwaukee is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games as a favorite of 5 or less.

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New York News & Notes

Improving the offense was the focus of the Knicks’ offseason moves, and it seems to have worked. New York enters play ranked second in the NBA in scoring at 113 points per game, with Julius Randle averaging 20.6 per outing and R.J. Barrett having posted four consecutive 20-point efforts.

However, the scoring boost may have come at the expense of the Knicks’ trademark defense, with New York allowing at least 111 points in each game of a current 0-3 ATS skid.

“We’ve got to get our defense in order,” Randle told the New York Post after Wednesday’s 111-98 loss to Indiana. “Our offense, we have talented enough players, we’ll be fine. We have to defend every night to win.”

The return of center Nerlens Noel could help. New York’s top shot blocker made his season debut against the Pacers, scoring two points and collecting six rebounds in 18 minutes after missing the Knicks’ first seven games with a knee injury.

Milwaukee News & Notes

A 4-4 SU and ATS start might not be what you expect from the defending champions, but at least they’ve got an excuse. Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton have already missed significant action for the Bucks, who earned their first win and cover in four games Tuesday with a 117-89 blowout of the Pistons.

“Thank God we won a game,” Giannis Antetokounmpo joked to the Associated Press. “I was worried we were going to start tanking for the No. 1 pick.”

Middleton (COVID-19) and Lopez (back) will still be out of the lineup tonight, but Holiday is expected to play after missing Milwaukee’s past five games with a sprained ankle. The Bucks went UNDER in each of those five games, scoring 95 points or less in two of them. Holiday’s return will also be key to guarding Knicks point guard Kemba Walker.

How New York Will Cover

Coming off lopsided losses to the Raptors and Pacers, the Knicks should be hungry to get back on track. It’ll start with increased focus on the defensive end, where New York will benefit from the absence of Middleton and Lopez.

How Milwaukee Will Cover

Defense also looks like the best path to victory for the short-handed Bucks, who have yet to win a game this season when they allow more than 111 points. They’ve had success shutting down New York in the past, holding the Knicks to 102 or less in seven of the last eight meetings.

Computer Pick: Bucks -4.5

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