The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA, have a former MVP and have an MVP candidate on the wing while winning five of their last seven on the road. But they could be in for a tough time in the altitude of the Pepsi Center as they face the Denver Nuggets, who have been, for lack of a better word, dominant on their home floor. The Nuggets own the best home record in the NBA at 26-4 SU in 30 games and that’s bad news for a Thunder team that has failed to cover the spread in its last seven games in Colorado.
The Nuggets opened as 4.5-point favorites (since moved to -3) with a total of 236.5.
Thunder vs Nuggets Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Nuggets are rolling teams at home with the best home record in the NBA at 26-4 SU and 21-9 ATS in 30 games at the Pepsi Center with a +12.3 point differential.
- The Nuggets are holding teams to 104.1 points per game at home, which ranks third in the NBA.
- The Thunder are the second-highest scoring team on the road this season despite averaging 33.1 percent from beyond the arc (ranked 29th).
- The Thunder are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven road games but have lost their last three games in Denver by an average of 7.3 points.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Thunder’s last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 240.67).
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games vs the Nuggets but all of those were as the favorite. The Thunder haven’t been an underdog against the Nuggets since April 2017.
My Best Bet for Thunder vs Nuggets
Nuggets -3
I love the Thunder and think they will end up being the main challenger to the Warriors in the Western Conference but this is a bad matchup for them. The Nuggets’ defense is severely underrated and they are cover machines at home so the -3 almost seems like a gift. The only loss the Nuggets have suffered at home over the last 21 games was to the Warriors back in mid-January and the Dubs broke the NBA record for points in a first quarter. I don’t see that happening tonight so I’m riding with the dominant home team and a very reasonable spread.
