With Chris Paul out with a hamstring strain, James Harden will be called upon more than ever, and that’s ok for the NBA’s leading scorer as they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder on Christmas night. Harden is averaging 32 points per game this season and has only been kept under 29 points once in 11 games this month. The Rockets are 1.5-point underdogs while the total is hovering at 221.5.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Thunder's last six games vs the Rockets. (Avg combined score: 211.2).
- The Rockets are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 11.5).
- The Thunder are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs the Rockets.
Thunder vs Rockets Game Center
Christmas Day Under Trend
This is a perfect game to rely on the Christmas Day trend of games going UNDER the total. Since 1992, the O/U is 30-44-6 while since 2015 the O/U is 4-10-1.
Combine that with the following numbers and you’ve got a compelling reason to look at taking the UNDER in this game. Firstly, the total has gone UNDER in five of the last six games in this matchup for an average combined score of 211.2 points. That includes the first meeting this season which ended up with a 98-80 score in favor of the Thunder.
Secondly, the total has hit the UNDER in all six of the Rockets’ last six games with a total of 221.5 or less, including games against Portland, Dallas and San Antonio. With Chris Paul unavailable for this game, Houston’s offensive contributions to the total are likely to dwindle.
Defense Wins Championships (And UNDER Bets)
Both teams have offensive superstars, but it’s on the defensive side of the ball where they each find themselves in the top 10 of the league. Oklahoma City has the No. 5 scoring defense, just 105.6 points per game against, while Houston is the No. 10 scoring defense, an average of 108.5 per game.
OKC likes to play a fast-paced game, but they will have to adapt against the team with the No. 29 pace rating in the Association. Houston plays a methodical game with only 96.8 possessions per game, a number that has even been lower over their last 10. That’s another argument for the UNDER – slow pace, fewer possessions, fewer points.
My Best Bet for This Game
Well, if you’ve been following my rationale above, you can see that I’ll be betting the UNDER in this game. They say not to look a gift horse in the mouth, and being that it’s Christmas and there are gifts aplenty, why not make a winning bet on this game yet another gift to yourself?
Win or lose, I hope you are surrounded by those you love and who love you this holiday season.
