In what could potentially be a second-round matchup in the Western Conference playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder challenge James Harden and the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are coming off a 26-point beatdown over the Kings and are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home. By that same token, the Thunder have been on their own hot streak and are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
Oddsmakers give the lean to the Rockets and opened them as 2-point favorites with a total of 235.5.
- The Thunder are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Rockets are 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home.
- The OVER has hit in 12 of the Thunder’s last 15 games.
Thunder vs Rockets Game Center
Rockets Have Been Tough To Beat At Home
Since the beginning of December, which has coincided with the James Harden Show taking the main stage, the Rockets have been an excellent home bet. Houston has gone 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games at the Toyota Center while continuing to lead the NBA in three-point attempts.
When these teams faced each other back on Christmas Day, the Rockets won by four points and Harden scored 41. I’m confident that Harden can go for 40 again but I’m a little worried about how the Rockets will fare down low without Clint Capela. Capela had 23 rebounds and played stout defense and the fact that his minutes will be replaced by the likes of Kenneth Faried and Nene Hilario worry me as a Rockets’ bettor.
However, I’m likely leaning to the Rockets’ spread and here’s why. Over their last 15 games, the Rockets lead the league in three-point attempts are hitting 35 percent of their shots. Conversely, the Thunder in that same span rank in the bottom 10 of the league in three-point attempts allowed and defending the three-point line.
Thunder Have the Tools To Run Rockets off the Floor
Sitting in third in the Western Conference and winning nine of their last 10 games, the Thunder are showing that last season’s shift to incorporating Paul George in the lineup is now in the rearview mirror. Russell Westbrook is still the king of the triple-double as he has stuffed the stat sheet in his last eight games and has allowed PG-13 to become the main scoring threat in OKC.
George has scored 30 or more points in eight of the Thunder’s last 10 games and it shouldn’t be a coincidence that OKC has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in those games while averaging 122.9 points per game, which is second in the NBA in that span. Three-point shooting has been the key factor for why the Thunder are scoring so many points lately as they’re shooting a blistering 44 percent from deep with George leading the way at 54 for 111 (48.6) from the perimeter in the last 10 games. However, they have allowed 113 points in that same stretch which means they could be due for a letdown.
I’m leery of backing the Thunder in this game even though they have a ton of stats to back up their success lately. Their defense is solid but the one phase of the game where the Rockets excel has been the OKC’s weakness and that’s stopping the opposition’s three-point shot. I may stay away from the spread altogether but if I had to pick, I’d fade the Thunder in this one.
Should You be on the OVER?
The total opened at 235.5 and totals bettors have been cashing in on the Thunder lately. The OVER has hit in 12 of OKC’s last 15 games with an average combined score of 243.9. When they take the road, the OVER has hit in their last four away games for an average combined score of 240.5. Not to be outdone, the Rockets are averaging 117.7 points over their last 10 games and the OVER has hit in four of their last five games at home with an average combined score of 247.7.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I've gone back and forth on the Rockets and Thunder spreads and have talked myself in and out of each team just in the process of writing this preview. Whichever way you lean, best of luck to you but I think there are far too many trends pointing to an OVER to ignore it.
