Thunder Ready to Roll vs Short-handed Rockets

Familiarity breeds contempt, especially in NBA circles – but the Oklahoma City Thunder won’t have to worry about one familiar face as they kick off their Western Conference quarterfinal series Tuesday against Houston in the Orlando bubble. Rockets guard and former Thunder superstar Russell Westbrook will be out for Game 1 (and possibly longer) with a strained right quad.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Houston opened as a slim 1.5-point favorite, but the absence of Westbrook has flipped this one over to the Thunder, who are at -1.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. The total began at a robust 227 but is down as much as 2 points in some spots.

Oklahoma City News & Notes

Not having to face Westbrook will undoubtedly buoy an Oklahoma City defense that excelled during the regular season but went through a few lapses in the restart. The Thunder finished seventh in the NBA in points against per game (108.4) despite allowing 115 or more points in four of their eight seeding games in Orlando. Not surprisingly, they went 1-3 SU in those contests.

Part of the issue is the Thunder’s inconsistency on offense. Oklahoma City finished with the second-worst offensive rating (103.4) of the 22 teams to participate in the bubble, with no player averaging more than 17 points per game. That said, the Thunder had seven players average double digits in scoring, displaying the kind of balance that could make them dangerous.

Houston News & Notes

It’s not just the absence of their second-leading scorer that has the Rockets looking vulnerable – it’s that fact that two other key pieces of their lineup are also banged up. Danuel House has missed the past two games with a toe injury while Eric Gordon only made his return to action in Houston’s final two seeding games after missing the previous six with an ankle injury.

All that means more pressure on league scoring champion James Harden, who averaged 34.3 points per game during the regular season and will be looking for a measure of revenge in this series. Harden, drafted third overall by the Thunder in 2009, shot just 32.3 percent from the field and 15.0 percent from long range in three regular-season meetings with OKC.

Betting Pick: Thunder -1.5 (-110)

The Rockets attempted 126 three-pointers in three meetings with the Thunder this season and made just 30. OKC is a premier team at defending the arc and should be able to key on Harden sufficiently to cover in Game 1.