After putting a beatdown on the Kings, the Los Angeles Lakers face another tough test at home when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder are 23-9 SU in their last 32 games (the best record in the NBA in that stretch) and have won 12 of the last 15 games in this matchup. It will be interesting to see how they fare against a Lakers team that has shown some fire with LeBron James on the mend and has covered the spread in two of its three games without James. This is only the third time this season that the Lakers have been a home underdog.
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites (since moved to -5.5) with a total of 229.5.
- The Thunder are 4th in the NBA in points allowed per game.
- The Lakers are 2-1 ATS in 3 games without LeBron James this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Lakers’ last 7 games (avg. combined score: 224).
Thunder’s Defense has Propelled them to 3rd in the West
Entering this contest at 23-13 SU in 36 games, Oklahoma City might not get the same hype as the Warriors or the Rockets in the Western Conference but it shouldn’t be overlooked. The Thunder have won six of their last nine games and Paul George was a beast in December. The eighth-year swingman averaged over 30 points and nine rebounds and shot 43 percent from three-point range. His presence has allowed Russell Westbrook to ease up on dominating the ball and while Westbrook can still go off for 40 points from time to time, his scoring average was down to 19.1 points per game in December, his lowest monthly average since April of the 2015-16 regular season.
OKC’s defense has been superb this season, which is why the Thunder have been able to surge up the standings. They lead the NBA in forced turnovers, rank fourth in points allowed per game (105.6) and teams are only shooting 33.8 percent from deep on them.
Although I think the Thunder should win this game handily, they’ve let me down in this position before when they seemed like an easy layup. The Thunder are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games on the road and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. I’ll likely stay away from the spread but I wouldn’t blame bettors for wanting to back them to cover.
Will Lakers Continue to Cover with LeBron Out?
The Lakers knew that this upcoming period without LeBron James would be a true test of their depth and resiliency. This will be the fourth game for Los Angeles with LeBron sipping wine on the sideline due to a groin injury and after an incredible win on Christmas Day over the Warriors, the team has gone 1-2 SU in three games with losses to divisional rivals in the Clippers and Kings.
The Lakers still have two players averaging over 15 points per game in Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram and those two wings combined for 41 points against the Kings in their most recent win. With their play, the Lakers have covered the spread in two of the last three games and they will be relied on heavily to carry the scoring load while LeBron’s 27.3 points are out of action.
I’m not confident that the young guns can hold off a surging Thunder squad as the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when covering in the previous game and 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games in this matchup.
The UNDER Might be the Smart Play
The total opened at 229.5 and it could be another UNDER between these Western Conference squads. The UNDER has hit in five of the Lakers’ last seven games with an average combined score of 224 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in the Thunder’s last three road games with an average combined score of 215.7 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. Oklahoma City’s defense makes me think the Lakers won’t top 110 points and over the Thunder’s last 10 games, only one contest went OVER a final combined score of 229.5. With both teams seeming to be a letdown waiting to happen for spread bettors, I think the UNDER is the best wager to make.
