After a tumultuous day yesterday with trades, the beat goes on in the NBA with a decent matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat. The Thunder will aim to win their seventh game in a row in South Beach while the Heat are coming off arguably their worst loss of the season when they allowed the Bulls to beat them by 26 points on their home floor.
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 219.5.
- The Thunder are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 road games.
- The Heat are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Thunder.
- The OVER has hit in 9 of the Thunder’s last 11 games (avg. combined score: 247.6).
Thunder have Quietly Been one of the Best Teams in the NBA
Lost in the shuffle of the Anthony Davis trade rumors and Kristaps Porzingis’ move to Dallas, Oklahoma City has silently been a dominant force in the Western Conference. The Thunder are 32-18 SU in 50 games this year and have won five of their last seven games on the road to push their away game record to 15-11 SU and ATS. The Thunder are one of seven teams in the NBA to have a winning record on the road this season.
The Thunder’s defense has been their calling card all year but what’s troubling is that during their six-game win streak, they’re allowing teams to score 113.8 points per game, which would rank in the 20s of the NBA if stretched out over an entire season. But defense may not matter much when you’re outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points per game over that span. Paul George has been the driving force – the eighth-year swingman has scored 30 or more points in five of those six games while hitting 27 of his 51 three-point attempts, which is Steph Curry-like.
I like the Thunder to dominate this game because of how well they’ve fared on the road but also because they’ve gotten an extra day of rest before this matchup and OKC is 9-3 SU in 12 games this season with two or more days of rest.
Heat’s Defense Will Need To Step Up
By only allowing opponents to average 104 points per game on them in January, you would think the Heat would be dominating their competition. Well, there are two ends to a basketball game and Miami is woefully undermanned on the offensive side of the ball. The Heat only averaged 102 points per game last month and ranked 23rd in three-point percentage on 32.2 attempts.
The Heat usually do their scoring by committee but their leading scorer in January was Josh Richardson at 14.4 points, which may work against the chumpy teams in the East but could be a death knell against a ferocious defense like the Thunder.
I’m not confident in the Heat at all for this game. They just lost by 26 points on their home floor to the Bulls and their last two wins were against the Knicks and Cav, who aren’t exactly studs in the standings. They’ve dropped the last five games in this matchup (0-4-1 ATS) and lost each game by an average of 15.4 points.
My only reservation for why the Heat can win is not due to any trends or data, it’s the allure of Miami. OKC likely spent another day at South Beach and teams with an extra day to relax in the sun can sometimes come out flat. I’m not ready to fade the Thunder because of this but it is something to keep in mind when you’re placing a wager on this game.
When Thunder Take the Floor, the OVER Tends to Follow
The total opened at 219.5 and OVER bettors have been crushing it when the Thunder take the court. The OVER has hit in nine of OKC’s last 11 games with an average combined score of 247.6. I’m not confident that will hit because of how the Heat have played this month with them having the best scoring defense but ranking in the bottom five in points scored per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the Thunder to win and cover the spread. Oklahoma City on paper is a much better team than the Heat, has been successful on the road recently and is well-rested. This should be a walk-over and with center Steven Adams expected back in the lineup, the Thunder should be able to negate any edge Miami would have with Hassan Whiteside down low.
