The Oklahoma City Thunder may have gotten the biggest win of their season when they knocked off the Houston Rockets last night and now can lock in the 6 seed in the West with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are resting most of their starting lineup and when Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, Milwaukee is 4-5 SU in nine games this season and has lost its last three when he sits.
As a result, the Thunder opened as 4-point favorites (since moved to -3) with a total of 229.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Bucks lead the NBA in scoring since the all-star break (121.1 points per game) while ranking ninth in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. When playing at home since the break, they’ve gone 10-2 SU and have a +11.3 point differential. That being said, they will not have Giannis Antetokounmpo or Brook Lopez playing tonight and will likely have their other regular starters on a minutes limit. In nine games this season without Giannis in the lineup, the Bucks are 4-5 SU and dropped their last three games without him.
- Since the all-star break, the Bucks defense has limited teams to 113.5 points per game while ranking second in opponent field-goal percentage. However, where they’ve gotten in trouble is defending the three-point line as they’re allowing opponents to shoot 37.4 attempts from behind the arc (ranked last in the NBA) and hit 36.4 percent of those shots.
- The Thunder are jockeying for playoff position in the Western Conference and after beating the Rockets last night can lock in the 6 seed with a win tonight. However, a loss would drop them to eighth and have them facing the Warriors in the first round. In road games since the all-star break, the Thunder are 4-6 SU and they’ve been allowing teams to hit 38.9 percent of their three-point attempts.
- The Thunder are riding a four-game win streak coming into this one and only one of those games was won by double digits. The Thunder are also on the second game of a back-to-back and are 6-5 SU and 4-7 ATS in 11 games in that situation. The last two times they were in this scenario, they were on the road to the Clippers and Pacers and lost both games while failing to cover the spread.
- A lot of UNDER trends coming into this matchup. The UNDER has hit in six of the Bucks’ last eight games with Giannis out of the lineup while the UNDER has also hit in the last six games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 200.6). The totals have also fallen short lately when the Thunder are on the second game of a back-to-back as it’s hit in the last four games in that spot (avg. combined score: 217.5).
My Best Bet for Thunder vs Bucks
UNDER 229
The numbers feel too easy to take the Thunder as a 4-point favorite but I think the UNDER is the smarter play. The Bucks have a ton of depth in their lineup and have showcased this season that they can still be very competitive even when Giannis doesn’t play.
The Thunder’s offense has dipped since the all-star break and I think with the stakes of them trying to avoid the Warriors, they’ll likely keep this game’s pace at a crawl and try to win each possession. I also think that if the game gets out of hand in the fourth quarter, they’ll likely sit all of their starters and rest up for the postseason. There are so many UNDER trends that it’s hard to ignore so I’d rather lean to a low-scoring game than bank on either team to cover the spread.
