Two of the Western Conference’s second-tier teams will duke it out in Oregon as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the feisty Portland Trail Blazers. The Thunder are tied for second in the West at 24-13 SU in 37 games but have not fared well in this matchup lately as they’ve dropped six straight games to the Blazers and haven’t won at the Moda Center since 2014. The Blazers will look to capitalize on that trend and are 14-6 SU in 20 home games this season.
The Blazers opened as 1-point favorites with a total of 223.
- The Blazers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 games vs the Thunder.
- The Thunder are 4th in the NBA in points allowed per game.
- The UNDER has hit in the Blazers’ last 5 games (avg. combined score: 219.6).
Thunder vs Trail Blazers Game Center
Thunder’s Defense Is Close to Championship Level
Typically, when we think of the Thunder, we think of triple-doubles and Russell Westbrook but it’s the defense that sets them apart. After locking up the Lakers and holding them to 100 points, the Thunder continue to roll and have pushed themselves to second in the Western Conference. OKC has won seven of its last 10 games and held five teams below 100 points in that span. With that performance against Los Angeles, the Thunder are fourth in the NBA in points allowed per game and lead the league in forced turnovers.
The Thunder may only rank 11th in points scored per game but with the strong effort on the other end of the court, they now are second in the NBA in point differential behind the Bucks. That puts them in some elite company as the team that has led the league in point differential has won the championship in four of the last five seasons. So, if OKC can continue its upward trend, it could surpass Milwaukee by February.
Although I think the Thunder should win this game handily, they’ve been snake-bitten when playing the Blazers. They’ve lost eight straight games at the Moda Center by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. I’m not saying this trend will continue but the Blazers have shown that they are a much better team at home this season than on the road.
Blazers Have Owned This Matchup
Wrapping up December with an 8-7 SU record, the Blazers have been the definition of Jekyll and Hyde in the NBA. Portland started off hot but cooled off when the winter hit and now is 22-16 SU in 38 games. But because of how even the West has been this year, the Blazers still sit in fifth in the conference and are only four games back of Denver.
The Blazers don’t do anything particularly great as they rank near the middle of the league in most offensive categories but they shoot the three-ball really well. Portland ranks 10th in the NBA in three-point percentage and the backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum is the straw that stirs the drink. Dame and CJ are combining to average 47.8 points per game but an interesting trend that I dug up is that when Lillard scores 30 or more points in a game this season, the Blazers are 3-8 SU in 11 games.
Going back to last season, the Blazers have been stellar at home with a record of 35-11 SU in their last 46 home games and given how they’ve handled the Thunder recently (6-0 SU and ATS in the last six games in this matchup), I tend to side with the home team in this one.
Blazers Games Have Been Profitable for UNDER Bettors
The total opened at 223 and when the Trail Blazers have been involved, the final score seems to come up short. The UNDER has hit in Portland’s last five games with an average combined score of 219.6 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in three of the last four games in this matchup that have led to an average combined score of 211.5, so totals bettors should expect a low-scoring affair in Oregon.
My Pick Is…
I’ve gone back and forth between the moneylines for both teams and I’m going with the Blazers strictly because they’re the home team and they’ve fared well in this matchup. They’ll also be on an extra day of rest compared to the Thunder, who have been on the road for eight of the last nine days.
