Winners of 17 of their last 22 home games this season, the San Antonio Spurs return to Texas after a tough loss in Memphis to host the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Spurs have been on a tear of late and have pushed themselves back into playoff contention in the Western Conference. The Thunder are also making noise in the West but just dropped back-to-back home games to some questionable teams in the Timberwolves and Wizards.
The Thunder opened as 1-point faves (since moved to -1.5) with a total of 223.
- The Spurs are 11-1 SU and ATS in their last 12 games at home.
- The Thunder are last in the NBA in three-point percentage (32 percent).
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the Spurs’ last 10 games at home.
Spurs Are Cooking At Home
In order to be considered an upper-tier team in the NBA, you have to protect home floor and the Spurs are reminding everyone that they still can be dominant in San Antonio. The Spurs are 11-1 SU and ATS in their last 12 games at home with an average win margin of 19.1 points per game. While it’s easy to think they’re just rolling over chumpy teams, the Spurs are actually 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven home games when playing against teams with winning records.
One of the main reasons for the resurgence is that the Spurs are scoring the ball at an incredible rate. Since the start of December, they’re third in the NBA in points per game and first in both field-goal percentage (51.2) and three-point percentage (42.4).
I think the Spurs win this game handily and considering they’re 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs, I have no problem endorsing a San Antonio wager tonight.
Thunder’s Poor Shooting May Be Holding them Back
Although it was only two losses at home, there were some troubling signs in those games against the Timberwolves and Wizards that may carry over to this game and it has to do with Russell Westbrook. Look, don’t get me wrong, I love me some Westbrook but I don’t think it’s out of line to say his shooting habits could use some work.
Russ is only averaging 23 percent from three-point range on just under five attempts per game and in those two losses, he was 3-for-11 from deep. His erratic shots have dragged the Thunder’s overall three-point percentage down to 32 percent, which is last in the NBA.
The Thunder have also not fared well when playing in San Antonio as they’ve dropped seven of their last nine games at AT&T Center and, according to NBA.com, have played the easiest schedule in the league so far this season. So, I expect OKC to come back to earth and lose its third game in a row.
When Spurs Play At Home, the UNDER Usually Follows
The total opened at 223 and trends are pointing to another UNDER in San Antone. The UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 games at AT&T Center with an average combined score of 212.1 points per game. When you factor in that the UNDER has hit in six of the last seven games in this matchup (average combined score: 196.1), it could be a low-scoring affair in this heavyweight tilt.
My Pick Is…
To take the Spurs moneyline for the extra juice. The Spurs may be coming off a back-to-back but have been profitable in that situation when playing at home as they’re 6-1 SU in the last seven games in that spot. They’re nearly unstoppable at home and to get them as underdogs against any team outside of the Warriors seems like a gift.
