The Charlotte Hornets’ playoff hopes are on life-support and in order to make the postseason, they need to knock off the Orlando Magic tonight and have the Pistons lose to the Knicks. The latter part of that scenario seems unlikely but the Hornets should come out firing in front of their home crowd. Although the Magic have been on a tremendous run in the second half of the season, they haven’t won in Charlotte since 2014 (seven games).
The Hornets opened as 1-point favorites with a total of 223.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Magic are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Charlotte and haven’t won there since 2014. They had an average loss margin of 17.8 points in that span and when they played there on December 31, they lost by 25 points and shot 41 percent from the field. They’ve also dropped nine of their last 10 games in this matchup by an average of 14 points per game while failing to cover in eight of those games.
- Since the all-star break, the Magic have been one of the hottest teams and their late-season push has got them to the postseason for the first time since 2012. Orlando’s defense has been its calling card, ranking second in points allowed per game and second in opponent three-point percentage.
- The Hornets have been a much better bet at home than on the road this season at 25-15 SU and 20-18-2 ATS compared to a 14-27 SU and 19-22 ATS record on the road. They average over five points more per game at home (113.1) than on the road and give up nearly five more points on defense on the road (114.2) than when playing in Charlotte.
- Kemba Walker is the lone bright spot on a Hornets roster barren of talent. The three-time all-star has been carrying his team all season and has averaged 32.4 points in five games this month. The Magic have done a pretty decent job at shutting him down this season as they’ve limited him to 20 points per game (three games) and 31 percent from behind the arc on an average of 7.3 attempts.
- The Magic have been an excellent bet for OVER bettors lately with the total going over in their last six games (avg. combined score: 230). The Magic have averaged 117.8 points in those games, which is 10 points higher than their season average. The OVER has also hit in all three games in this matchup this season (avg. combined score: 216.3). It’s also worth noting that when a total is set at 220 or higher in Magic games, the UNDER has hit in 15 of their 23 games this season.
My Best Bet for Magic vs Hornets
Hornets -1
On paper, I like the Magic team much more than the Hornets but I think it will be tough for the Magic to win this game. Orlando may have improved defensively but it still has difficulty scoring and is 5-7 SU in 12 road games since the all-star break. I loathe using motivation as a reason to pick a team but this is literally a must-win game for Charlotte and the Hornets have owned this matchup.
The stats show the Hornets play much better at home than in road games and have routinely shut down the Magic offense when they take the court. At such a low spread, it might as well be a pick’em and I have no issue siding with a home team.
