One of the league’s hottest bets visits one of the league’s coldest bets tonight in Oakland and it’s not what you’d expect at first glance. The Orlando Magic are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games, while the defending champions from Golden State are 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Despite that, the Warriors open as 8-point favorites at Oracle Arena.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State.
- Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Orlando.
- The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
Orlando Has Been a Surprisingly Great Bet Lately
Steve Clifford’s group is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, including two wins over LeBron and the Lakers, a win over the 76ers and an ATS win in a two-point loss to Toronto. While there are not a lot of stats that stand out to help explain this, they do have the No. 9 scoring defense in the Association at 108.55 points and have surrendered just 103 ppg in their last three games.
The Magic are an impressive 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or less since November 9, winning five of those games straight up. This indicates to me that they are still being undervalued by oddsmakers after their very slow start to the season.
Warriors Still Playing Without Green and Curry
If there was ever any doubt about what makes the champions tick, the tailspin we’ve witnessed without Steph in the lineup is a wonderful indicator. You see, when you go all-in on free agents and they get hurt, then you’re usually left with inexperience on the bench and that’s exactly what we’ve seen with Golden State.
Even in their two weekend wins, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson were required to score over 30 points each night. Those two will be relied on once again tonight and will be in tough against an Orlando defense that has been able to shut down top players, including keeping LeBron to 22 and 24 points in two games this month.
My Best Bet Tonight
I’m backing the underdog Magic in this game. Golden State is dealing with injuries and locker-room discord and is 2-6 ATS this season when favored by 8 points or less. Most of these games have come during the Curry-less stretch as oddsmakers are still trying to find the right number for a team that is generally unbeatable when at its best.
The public loves to bet the Warriors, though, and I’ll be waiting to see if the line continues to move in favor of the Warriors as the game draws closer. Our OddsShark consensus data shows early betting is on Golden State, so if you’re following my pick, keep an eye on line movement and you may be able to pick up another point or more to insulate your Orlando pick.
