It’s not very often this season that the Orlando Magic can attempt to win three games in a row but here we are. The Magic have pulled off that feat once this season and getting that third victory could be a tall order vs the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are a decent 17-7 SU in 24 home games and were riding a seven-game win streak before falling short in Boston in their most recent outing.
The Thunder opened as 10.5-point favorites (since moved to -9.5) with a total of 222.5 (since moved to 223).
- The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Oklahoma City.
- The Thunder are averaging 122.8 points in their last 10 home games.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the Thunder’s last 7 games.
Magic have Been Cover Machines when in OKC
Although three wins in a row may seem like a minuscule feat for an NBA team, the fact that the Magic are only three games out of a playoff spot in the East means getting this third win could be a difference maker for their postseason chances. Orlando is 8-16 SU in 24 road games but has covered the spread in 13 of them, which means the Magic have been a profitable wager if you’d blindly bet their spread in every away game. That’s not something I would have recommended but the fact the Magic have covered the spread in their last six road games in Oklahoma City means that there’s some weight to that trend.
Now for the bad news: The Magic’s offense stinks. Orlando is only averaging 104.3 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NBA, and has failed to top 100 points in its last two road losses. However, the Magic did put up 117 points when they hosted the Thunder just over a week ago. To be fair, Steven Adams didn’t play in that game, which may explain why Orlando was able to score 52 points in the paint.
If bettors are willing to bank on the Magic to cover the spread, there are some trends to support their theory. Orlando is 3-1 ATS in four road games as an underdog of 9.5 points or more this season and, as mentioned, has covered in its last six trips to OKC. I’m not willing to invest in that but I can’t blame bettors who do.
Thunder’s Offense is On Another Level
Although they took the L in Beantown in their last outing, the Thunder should feel encouraged by dropping 129 points on a Celtics team that is one of the best defensive teams at home. OKC’s offense has been a revelation this season as the Thunder are averaging 122.8 points in their last 10 home games and have scored 120 points or more in nine of their last 12 games overall.
Russell Westbrook is doing his usual triple-double show by getting a trip-dub in the Thunder’s last six games but it’s Paul George who has stolen the show. PG-13 may have only shot 5-for-16 from deep against Boston but the swingman still put up 37 points and has scored 30 or more in six of OKC’s last seven games so it shouldn’t be considered a coincidence that the Thunder are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in those contests.
I like the Thunder to dominate this game because of how well they match up with the Magic and because they’ll have Steven Adams to slow down Nikola Vucevic in the paint.
OVER ALERT
The total opened at 222.5 (since moved to 223) and trends are pointing to an OVER at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The OVER has hit in six of the Thunder’s last seven games with an average combined score of 238 points per game. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in five of the Thunder’s last six home games (average combined score: 240.1), this total could be OVER with six minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. The offense is clicking so well with the Thunder that it doesn’t even bother me that the Magic’s offense has been so poor. There are too many trends lately for the Thunder to take an UNDER in this spot.
