Perimeter Defense A Concern For Sixers vs Celtics

Philadelphia won three of four regular-season meetings with Boston this year, but those victories came with Ben Simmons in the lineup. Now without their all-star guard for the rest of the season, the 76ers will have to figure out different ways to defend Jayson Tatum and the Celtics’ other talented wings when the teams open their first-round series Monday.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Money has poured in on the Celtics since oddsmakers opened them as 3.5-point favorites on Friday, moving this line to -5.5 at most sportsbooks as of Sunday morning. Boston has covered the spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings.

Philadelphia News & Notes

Although Simmons led Philadelphia this season in both minutes and assists, many feel the Sixers might actually be a better offensive team without him on the floor. Without him, Philly can surround centre Joel Embiid with better perimeter shooters, a tactic that was effective for the Sixers during the regular season. In the minutes Embiid has played this year without Simmons on the court, Philadelphia owns a net rating of +12.3 per 100 possessions — a drastic increase from its +0.6 rating when the two played together.

However, Simmons’ absence will absolutely be felt on the defensive end, especially against Boston’s talented wings. Simmons was Philadelphia’s go-to defender this season against Jayson Tatum, limiting Boston’s star forward to 18.6 points per 36 minutes played. When Simmons rested, Tatum’s scoring average per 36 minutes nearly doubled.

Excluding Philadelphia’s seeding-round finale against a Houston team that limited its starters’ minutes, the Sixers are 3-0 to the OVER since losing Simmons to injury, allowing 124-plus points in each of those contests.

Boston News & Notes

Celtics all-star guard Kemba Walker will no longer be bound by a minutes restriction. Walker was eased into action during the seeding round as he worked his way back from knee issues, ramping up from 19 minutes in the Sportsbook game to 32 minutes in an overtime win against the Magic. His effectiveness has also increased, highlighted by a 7-for-10 shooting performance for 19 points in his most recent game against the Grizzlies.

Boston is expected to have Tatum and centre Daniel Theis back to full capacity as well after the starters missed the team’s final seeding-round game to rest ankle and foot ailments, respectively. The Celtics also rested Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart in the 96-90 loss to Washington, concluding Boston’s seeding-round performance at 5-3 SU (3-4-1 ATS).

Betting Pick: OVER 218

The Sixers still have plenty of offensive firepower to keep up with the Celtics in this series. However, I don’t feel that oddsmakers have adjusted this total up quite enough to account for Simmons’ absence at the defensive end.