The second tier of Eastern Conference contenders square off in the Hoosier State tonight with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Philadelphia 76ers. The Pacers are 15-5 SU in 20 home games this season and have split the season series so far with the Sixers, going 1-1 SU. Philly may have gone 4-2 SU in the last six road games but is 1-8 SU in the last nine games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
Oddsmakers have opened the Sixers as 3-point underdogs (since moved to +2.5) with a total of 224.5.
- The Pacers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.
- The Sixers are 2nd in the NBA in assists per game (27.2).
- The OVER has hit in the Pacers’ last 9 games (avg. combined score: 231.5).
Pacers Are Rolling At Home
Sitting 2.5 games back of the Bucks and Raptors for first place in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers are the one contending team in the East that seems to get lost in the shuffle. The Pacers only have one legitimate all-star in Victor Oladipo but are a team filled with role players who do their job and play efficient defense.
Indy is second in scoring defense at 103 points per game and fourth in points allowed in the paint (43.2). That latter stat will be put to the test tonight facing a stud center like Joel Embiid, who has averaged 30 points per game in two contests vs the Pacers this season to go with 15.5 rebounds.
I like the Pacers to keep up their winning ways at Bankers Life Fieldhouse because they’re 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games at home. In 15 games as a home favorite of 3 points or more this season, Indiana is 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS.
Sixers Need A Change? They Have Plenty Of Dimes To Spare
Although the infusion of Jimmy Butler into the Sixers lineup may not have gone as smoothly as hoped, it hasn’t held Philly back from playing efficient offense. Philadelphia is second in the NBA in assists per game at 27.2 and leading the way is Ben “I get by without a jump shot” Simmons. The third-year forward/guard leads the team with 8.2 assists per game and that mark is tied for fifth in the NBA.
That fluid offense has pushed the Sixers to great levels offensively as they’re averaging 121 points per game this month while shooting almost 40 percent from three. The key number here is 120 points because when Philly hits that mark, wins usually follow. In 17 games this season when the Sixers score 120 points, they’re 14-3 SU.
I want to believe that the Sixers are better than the Pacers and want to believe they should be able to go into Indiana and roll them. So, why can’t I fully commit? Well, it’s because of their history of playing in Indiana and their road record in general. The Sixers have lost eight of their last nine games in Indy and are 10-12 SU in 22 road games. Only seven teams in the NBA have a winning record on the road and it’s the stud teams that you would assume like the Bucks, Raptors, Warriors, Nuggets, etc. If the Sixers want to be classified in that group and taken seriously as a title contender, winning on the road is paramount.
OVER Bettors Cashing in on Pacers Games
The total opened at 223.5 (since moved to 224.5) and with the Pacers involved, the OVER needs to be seriously considered by totals bettors. Indiana is riding a nine-game OVER streak with those games leading to an average combined score of 231.5 points per games. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in points scored and three-point percentage this month and with the OVER hitting in four of the Sixers’ last five games (average combined score 237.8), I like this one to surpass the total too.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I wanted to take the Pacers to win and cover the spread but Joel Embiid is a matchup nightmare and swayed me away from the spread. I think the OVER is the smarter play based on how these teams have performed lately.
